OVERVIEW The third quarter began with a broad rebound in risk assets. The global equity market regained +13% from its June lows by mid-August. However, sentiment turned again and markets have been volatile since. Year-to-date the global stock market is down near-26%. Emerging markets fared worse, down close to -28%. The losses are broad even … Continue reading Q4 2022 Update
I wrote several times this year about my preference for international equities versus US. In August, I pointed out the selloff in Chinese stocks looked like an overaction. The Chinese market is up about +10% from its August lows. My timing was lucky, but there are still many long-term reasons to be bullish on Chinese … Continue reading A Real Distinction
MACRO OVERVIEW Global equity markets notched a new all time high in early September only to pull back since. The rise in market volatility has some fearing another meltdown. To be clear, nobody knows what happens next, but it's worth noting how current economic and market conditions contrast with Q1. Figure 1: Global Equity Market … Continue reading Macro Value Update, Q3 2020
An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Fear is in the air It used to be "when America sneezes, the world catches a cold," but recent market action shows China may be the new snotty-nosed kid on the block. I mean the now-notorious coronavirus. Since its outbreak, the news flow has been frantic and … Continue reading When China Sneezes…
An excerpt from my recent article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Pakistan goes back some 5,000 years and has a storied history of assimilating European, Asian, and Arab influences over millennia. Today, Pakistan has an equally interesting future that should be promising, but it's also debilitated by some serious problems. In this article, we'll unpack what's right and … Continue reading Unpacking Pakistan
Back to 1 Last year when the 10-year Treasury yield breached 3% the markets were convinced the era of low long-term rates was over. But yields are now back down to a 2% handle. And just as quickly as some predicted 5% Treasury yields, some are now predicting 1%. 10-YEAR US TREASURY YIELDS Fixed-income investors … Continue reading Hungry For Yield
Time for Turkey? The Holidays are almost here, but no, I'm not writing about your upcoming Thanksgiving dinner. I'm writing about a Turkey with Lira that's down 90% against USD and an equity market that's down 70% from its highs. TUR data by YCharts When others are fearful Emerging market equities have sold off broadly year-to-date. … Continue reading Time for Turkey?
Emerging markets are down close to 7% YTD as of the end of July. The reasons are various -- rising interest rates, softening economic data, and US tariffs to boot. Unrecognized headliner China is on the front page because of the trade war and its equity market was down over 20% from its YTD highs. … Continue reading Keeping it Real
Cradle of civilization Egypt has been called the "cradle of civilization." Egyptians are tied to some of the earliest forms of language, agriculture, and technology that's known to man. While the country has experienced its share of modern social and political issues, Egypt today is ripe with potential. Consider the following characteristics. The most populated … Continue reading Egypt Waits for Spring
Investors faced a litany of doubts this year. Raging dysfunction in DC, a string of natural disasters, and even threat of nuclear war. But investors aren't shaken. Year to date the S&P 500 is up 16%+, the EAFE 22%, and EM 32% (represented below by returns for SPY, EFA, and EEM respectively). YTD Total Returns … Continue reading Climbing the Wall
Back in September, I wrote about the Greek stock market. I pointed out that widespread pessimism, low expectations, and attractive valuation created an easy hurdle for an upside surprise. Since then Greece has been on fire, up over 35%! But despite an increase in price, the Greek market P/E has actually fallen from 4.7x down … Continue reading Greece on Fire
The year is close to an end and both main street and Wall Street are quiet. The holiday time tranquility is a good time to reflect on the past year. Heading into 2016, my highest conviction investment ideas were the Russian stock market, silver, and oil. Though the year's not quite over, it looks … Continue reading Lesson Learned Looking Back
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