Gold is popular, to say the least. People have conjured up more cliches and trite sayings about the metal than any other. But this year "all that glisters is not gold" (h/t Shakespeare). From April to September gold saw an intra-year drawdown of about -19% while the S&P 500 was down by nearly -15%. Figure … Continue reading All That Glitters
OVERVIEW The third quarter began with a broad rebound in risk assets. The global equity market regained +13% from its June lows by mid-August. However, sentiment turned again and markets have been volatile since. Year-to-date the global stock market is down near-26%. Emerging markets fared worse, down close to -28%. The losses are broad even … Continue reading Q4 2022 Update
The NASDAQ is down almost -30% from its November 2021 highs. Unlike the pandemic drawdown, this sell-off doesn't have a clear catalyst. It's unfolding in fits and starts and has investors pointing at a growing list of potential causes - rising rates, a tightening Fed, inflation, slowing growth, high valuations, disappointing guidance, etc. Whatever the … Continue reading A Matter of Perspective
US stocks are at all-time highs and many valuations measures suggest they are expensive. That doesn't mean the market can't keep rising and it's proven bears wrong for years. However, it's fair to say US stocks don't look cheap by traditional standards. It's actually getting hard to find any market that looks like a compelling … Continue reading Greed and Fear
Yesterday the United Kingdom made history by delivering a surprise vote to leave the European Union. Though the odds were close, market pricing was tilted towards a "Bremain" vote -- so "Brexit" was an unexpected outcome. Markets reacted commensurately today, European equity markets were down more than 7% and the Sterling down more than … Continue reading Following the Brexit Signs
Following a choppy third quarter, global markets have made a comeback. Since October 1, the S&P 500 and EAFE have both rebounded over 5%, and emerging markets have bounced by more than 8%. Strangely enough, the same fears that stoked the sell-off also seem to be fueling the rally. Investors who disliked the uncertainty … Continue reading Full Swing Voting
The third quarter is officially in the books, and it ended a dicey one. Global stocks ended the quarter squarely in correction territory, the FTSE Global All Cap Index was down 10.5% for the period. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was down 7.3%, the EAFE was down 10.1%, and emerging markets were the worst at … Continue reading Rolling the Dice
Market volatility picked up significantly in August and US stocks have been teetering in and out of correction territory ever since. Uncertainty is pervasive and investors' nerves are rattled. At times like these, it's more important than ever to manage expectations and maintain appropriate expectations. A market correction is generally defined as a pullback of … Continue reading Never a Wrong Time
US stocks got off to a choppy start in 2015. The S&P 500 ended January down 3% and some took it as an omen for the year ahead. But the market bounced back 6% in February and is now up 2.88% for the year. So much for the "January Barometer?" Whether you use them … Continue reading The February Barometer?
Following a calm start to 2014, financial markets ended the third quarter with a spike up in volatility. Global stock prices fell by 3.79% in the third quarter but still managed a year to date return of 3.80%. Risky asset prices, in general, were down across the board. Most notably, foreign developed market stock prices were … Continue reading Third Quarter Recap
Going into 2011, analysts up and down Wall Street were calling for stocks to outperform bonds. As of October 31st, U.S. stocks are down 2.6% year to date. Meanwhile, U.S. bonds are up 7.01% over the same period. Figure 1 shows the change in prices for the S&P 500 and the Barclay's Aggregate year to date. … Continue reading Herd on the Street
It was a wild week for US markets. Volatility was off the charts and on Thursday the Dow dropped 512 points - its ninth largest single-day drop in history. Stocks are down about 7% from their peak in April and are now negative for the year. Then on Friday, adding insult to injury, Standard and Poors stripped … Continue reading Here Comes the Sink
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