Cracks in the Wall

I wrote in December widespread market fear and pessimism in the US seemed like an overreaction based on fundamental data.  To be clear, I don't think US stocks are a good bargain, and I prefer emerging markets anyway. But the YTD rally does support my view that the sell-off in Q4 was technical,  and as investors pile … Continue reading Cracks in the Wall

Much Ado About Something

The last two months have been choppy for stocks. The S&P 500 is down about 8% and has given up its gain for the year. Emerging markets have outperformed since October, relatively speaking, but remain the biggest loser YTD, down about 16%. As usual, the financial media is searching, desperately, for something to fear. Does … Continue reading Much Ado About Something

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

The markets saw some back and forth this month but the S&P 500 closed the quarter up about 5% and even bonds managed to eek out a small gain.  The "Trump rally" is moving along, and the market still buys the president's campaign promises. But following the capitulation of repeal and replace, Trump's ability to … Continue reading Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

Surprise, Surprise

Yesterday, the US made history with an upset of presidential proportions.  Despite being a huge underdog, Donald Trump clinched the presidency from strongly favored Hillary Clinton (who pollsters estimated had a 90% probability of winning).  Following the upset, investor uncertainty spiked and Dow futures traded down more than 800 points. Yet the S&P 500 actually … Continue reading Surprise, Surprise

Fitting the Earnings Shoe

The first quarter started with a bang but ended with a thud.  The US stock market was basically flat and the bond market was modestly up.  The widespread global recession rhetoric seems to be quieting. This is particularly true in the US where we have been pointing out economic conditions are not as bad as … Continue reading Fitting the Earnings Shoe