Gold is popular, to say the least. People have conjured up more cliches and trite sayings about the metal than any other. But this year "all that glisters is not gold" (h/t Shakespeare). From April to September gold saw an intra-year drawdown of about -19% while the S&P 500 was down by nearly -15%. Figure … Continue reading All That Glitters
Q4 2022 Update
OVERVIEW The third quarter began with a broad rebound in risk assets. The global equity market regained +13% from its June lows by mid-August. However, sentiment turned again and markets have been volatile since. Year-to-date the global stock market is down near-26%. Emerging markets fared worse, down close to -28%. The losses are broad even … Continue reading Q4 2022 Update
Silver prices are down 70% from their 2011 highs. Of course, there was a huge run-up to that peak and many people, myself included, thought a sell-off was needed. But at this point prices have swung to the other side, and precious metals are now as widely hated as they were loved before. How did … Continue reading Silver Lining
While lumber doesn't get as much attention as its popular cousins oil and gold, it too is a scarce and valuable natural resource. What's more, I think the secular case for lumber is strong due to how the world is changing. As countries develop and industrialize, they typically follow a pattern of building and resource … Continue reading Yelling Timber!
Cold, Hard, Commodities
The broad commodity markets have been uneventful over the past two years. While some commodities have outperformed others, and windows of volatility may have been good for trading, the broad commodity markets ended up down in both 2011 and 2012. That being said, commodities should be attractive from a long-term perspective. The reasons are straightforward. Natural resources like oil, metals, … Continue reading Cold, Hard, Commodities
Kicking the Wheel
Traditionally, commodities were a difficult asset class for individual investors to access. For most people, it just wasn't practical to trade futures or to take physical delivery of oil barrels. As a result, the primary investors were the very wealthy, institutions, and companies that had commercial needs for the commodities. This shut out the average investor from a market that could provide strong returns and low correlations with other asset … Continue reading Kicking the Wheel
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