Q3 2022 Update

MARKET OVERVIEW The global sell-off in financial markets accelerated during Q2. Global equities officially entered a bear market, breaching the technical definition of a -20% decline. US stocks were down most, but all major equity regions were down double digits year-to-date. Even the US bond market was off by -10% for the year. Figure 1: … Continue reading Q3 2022 Update

A Matter of Perspective

The NASDAQ is down almost -30% from its November 2021 highs. Unlike the pandemic drawdown, this sell-off doesn't have a clear catalyst. It's unfolding in fits and starts and has investors pointing at a growing list of potential causes - rising rates, a tightening Fed, inflation, slowing growth, high valuations, disappointing guidance, etc. Whatever the … Continue reading A Matter of Perspective

Q2 2022 Update

QUARTER IN REVIEW Q1 was a bumpy ride for investors. Global equity market prices (MSCI ACWI) swung from being down almost -13% to only down about -6% for the quarter. However, the negative returns were broad. All major equity regions and even the US bond market were down YTD. Figure 1: Global Markets YTD MACRO … Continue reading Q2 2022 Update

Q2 2021 Update

NOTE ON UPDATES Starting with Q1 2021, BCM is consolidating its various update notes into a single "Quarter Update," labelled as "Quarter Update" under Categories. This reduces redundancy and makes updates easier to follow. QUARTER REVIEW Q1 started with a rally in risk assets, but equity markets are still off their all-time-highs notched in February. … Continue reading Q2 2021 Update

Tactical Allocation Update, Q4 2020

QUARTER REVIEW The fourth quarter capped what can only be described as a breath-taking year for the markets (and the world). The global equity market rose +15.15% in 2020, as measured by the MSCI ACWI. While that doesn't look outstanding by itself, keep it mind that was after clawing back a -34% decline from Q1 … Continue reading Tactical Allocation Update, Q4 2020

Tactical Allocation Update, Q3 2020

QUARTER REVIEW Global equity markets continued their ascend from their Q1 lows. As of September 30, the MSCI ACWI (global stock market) is +1.89% year-to-date. That doesn't sound like much, but that's after recovering the -36% peak-to-trough decline from Q1. From that perspective, this year has been nothing short of remarkable. Figure 1: Global Equity … Continue reading Tactical Allocation Update, Q3 2020

Stupid Acronyms

US equities bounced hard off their March lows. The disconnect with fundamental data has many intelligent investors trying to explain the rally with acronyms like FOMO and TINA. But the best explanation may come from the original Intelligent Investor Benjamin Graham who said, "in the short-run, the market is a voting machine, but in the … Continue reading Stupid Acronyms

When Boring is Better

MARKET SUMMARY After a strong 2019, global equity markets made an abrupt move to the downside in the past month. Most major stock markets have officially entered into bear market territory and are down between 20% to 30%. Figure 1: Global Equity Markets YTD Price Returns With markets already uneasy about slowing economic conditions, the … Continue reading When Boring is Better