OVERVIEW The third quarter began with a broad rebound in risk assets. The global equity market regained +13% from its June lows by mid-August. However, sentiment turned again and markets have been volatile since. Year-to-date the global stock market is down near-26%. Emerging markets fared worse, down close to -28%. The losses are broad even … Continue reading Q4 2022 Update
MARKET OVERVIEW The global sell-off in financial markets accelerated during Q2. Global equities officially entered a bear market, breaching the technical definition of a -20% decline. US stocks were down most, but all major equity regions were down double digits year-to-date. Even the US bond market was off by -10% for the year. Figure 1: … Continue reading Q3 2022 Update
The NASDAQ is down almost -30% from its November 2021 highs. Unlike the pandemic drawdown, this sell-off doesn't have a clear catalyst. It's unfolding in fits and starts and has investors pointing at a growing list of potential causes - rising rates, a tightening Fed, inflation, slowing growth, high valuations, disappointing guidance, etc. Whatever the … Continue reading A Matter of Perspective
QUARTER IN REVIEW Q1 was a bumpy ride for investors. Global equity market prices (MSCI ACWI) swung from being down almost -13% to only down about -6% for the quarter. However, the negative returns were broad. All major equity regions and even the US bond market were down YTD. Figure 1: Global Markets YTD MACRO … Continue reading Q2 2022 Update
In January, I wrote BCM was entering 2022 with a reduction in our tactical risk allocation, moving to neutral weight from last year's overweight position. That was a fortunate and timely call given the weak start to this year for risk assets. The rationale was the tailwinds that supported equity markets in 2020 and 2021 … Continue reading Are We There Yet?
BCM's latest Investor Letter is available to clients at bellwethercm.com/letters.
QUARTER IN REVIEW Q3 was decisively less risk-on for markets. The global equity market (MSCI ACWI) gave back some gains but is still up +11% ytd. There was wide divergence between markets, notably emerging markets are down. Safe havens like US bonds and gold are also down for the year. Figure 1 Global Markets MACRO … Continue reading Q4 2021 Update
NOTE ON UPDATES Starting with Q1 2021, BCM is consolidating its various update notes into a single "Quarter Update," labelled as "Quarter Update" under Categories. This reduces redundancy and makes updates easier to follow. QUARTER REVIEW Q1 started with a rally in risk assets, but equity markets are still off their all-time-highs notched in February. … Continue reading Q2 2021 Update
QUARTER REVIEW The fourth quarter capped what can only be described as a breath-taking year for the markets (and the world). The global equity market rose +15.15% in 2020, as measured by the MSCI ACWI. While that doesn't look outstanding by itself, keep it mind that was after clawing back a -34% decline from Q1 … Continue reading Tactical Allocation Update, Q4 2020
QUARTER REVIEW Global equity markets continued their ascend from their Q1 lows. As of September 30, the MSCI ACWI (global stock market) is +1.89% year-to-date. That doesn't sound like much, but that's after recovering the -36% peak-to-trough decline from Q1. From that perspective, this year has been nothing short of remarkable. Figure 1: Global Equity … Continue reading Tactical Allocation Update, Q3 2020
QUARTER REVIEW: PRECEDENTS Equity markets set back to back records year to date. In Q1 the MSCI ACWI (global stock market) suffered one of the fastest bear markets in history only to claim one of the fastest rebounds ever in Q2. Full circle the ACWI is down -6% as of June 30. Figure 1: Global … Continue reading Tactical Allocation Update, Q2 2020
US equities bounced hard off their March lows. The disconnect with fundamental data has many intelligent investors trying to explain the rally with acronyms like FOMO and TINA. But the best explanation may come from the original Intelligent Investor Benjamin Graham who said, "in the short-run, the market is a voting machine, but in the … Continue reading Stupid Acronyms