BCM's latest Investor Letter is available to clients at bellwethercm.com/letters.
I wrote several times this year about my preference for international equities versus US. In August, I pointed out the selloff in Chinese stocks looked like an overaction. The Chinese market is up about +10% from its August lows. My timing was lucky, but there are still many long-term reasons to be bullish on Chinese … Continue reading A Real Distinction
Many things about China don't make sense in the West. It's not just food and politics, but markets too. In China market quotes flash red on upticks and green on downticks. In the wake of the pandemic Chinese stocks led a global rebound with an outstanding rally few expected. But fortunes turned again quickly. The … Continue reading Red is the New Green
Back in January 2011 I wrote "I think one of the most attractive domestic investment opportunities is also one of the most detested - real estate." Obvious and easy in hindsight, but in 2011 many people were still licking their wounds from one of the largest real estate crashes ever. People were scared silly and … Continue reading All Good Things
Every decade or two financial markets enter a state of what Alan Greenspan called "irrational exuberance." These periods are characterized by markets that defy logic and reason. The time changes but the narrative repeats. "We've entered a new paradigm." "Old investing rules no longer apply." And of course, "Things are different this time." In the … Continue reading Same Old Dance Moves
An excerpt from my latest article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Nobody likes energy stocks. They're boring, old oil conglomerates on-trend for a long-term decline. In 2020, US energy sector stocks were down some -37% as measured by the Select Sector SPDR Energy ETF (XLE) versus +16% for the S&P 500 (SPY). Figure 1: XLE vs SPY … Continue reading It’s Business As Usual for Energy
THE DEATH OF VALUE The death knell for "value-investing" has rung many times over the years. And after a decade of lagging explosive growth stocks (like "FANGMAT") it rings louder than ever. The divergence between growth and value has reached historical levels and now looks even more stretched than during the 1990s dot-com boom. Is … Continue reading Long and Short of Value
MACRO OVERVIEW Global equity markets notched a new all time high in early September only to pull back since. The rise in market volatility has some fearing another meltdown. To be clear, nobody knows what happens next, but it's worth noting how current economic and market conditions contrast with Q1. Figure 1: Global Equity Market … Continue reading Macro Value Update, Q3 2020
US equities bounced hard off their March lows. The disconnect with fundamental data has many intelligent investors trying to explain the rally with acronyms like FOMO and TINA. But the best explanation may come from the original Intelligent Investor Benjamin Graham who said, "in the short-run, the market is a voting machine, but in the … Continue reading Stupid Acronyms
An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. We just experienced one of the fastest bear market drawdowns in history and the S&P 500 was down -36% from peak to trough. Since then, we've also had a quick bounce of +27%. The whipsaw has everyone guessing if the stock market bottomed in March. Of course, … Continue reading A Hopeless Bottom
An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Fear is in the air It used to be "when America sneezes, the world catches a cold," but recent market action shows China may be the new snotty-nosed kid on the block. I mean the now-notorious coronavirus. Since its outbreak, the news flow has been frantic and … Continue reading When China Sneezes…
An excerpt from my recent article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Passive investing has enjoyed a tremendous rise in interest and popularity from investors over the past decade. Following that rise, the number of passive investment products, like index funds and ETFs, has also taken off. So much so that some fear passive investing is the next … Continue reading The Big Short, Part Deux?