Bulls running high Markets exhaled a sigh of relief following the US-China trade truce and US stocks are retesting all-time highs. Like I wrote earlier this year, the new-highs are not a surprise and there could be even more upside if Chairman Powell delivers on anticipated rate cuts. Ironically, these new highs could signal a topping … Continue reading Burning Out
The last two months have been choppy for stocks. The S&P 500 is down about 8% and has given up its gain for the year. Emerging markets have outperformed since October, relatively speaking, but remain the biggest loser YTD, down about 16%. As usual, the financial media is searching, desperately, for something to fear. Does … Continue reading Much Ado About Something
Volatility returns Stock market volatility is back. In February this year, the S&P 500 posted the largest single-day point fall in its history, only to rebound with the fourth largest single-day rise in history. All that volatility has some questioning if it still makes sense to invest in the stock market. S&P 500 BEST & WORST SINGLE DAY POINT … Continue reading Patience and Profits
US stocks are at all-time highs and many valuations measures suggest they are expensive. That doesn't mean the market can't keep rising and it's proven bears wrong for years. However, it's fair to say US stocks don't look cheap by traditional standards. It's actually getting hard to find any market that looks like a compelling … Continue reading Greed and Fear
US stocks are in one of the longest bull markets in history. Many are warning of extended market valuations. Two of the most highly regarded valuation measures seem to agree. The chart below shows Dr. Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio has reached levels surpassed only by the dot-com bubble peak in 2000. CAPE Ratio Source: Multpl … Continue reading No Market for Old Men
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are the dish du jour. Everyone from seasoned investment managers to teen-aged kids wants a taste of the crypto. There's a good reason too, Bitcoin is up almost 300% in the past year alone. But price swings are extreme, enough to make even veteran traders squirm (both in pain and delight). The … Continue reading Bitcoin, Blockchain, and a Bag of Chips
In the previous post, I made the point that US stock market valuation isn't as high as a cursory glance at traditional P/E measures might imply. Adjusted for inflation, valuations actually look more "median" than anything. But I also don't think US market valuations are currently attractive. And some of the arguments I've seen about … Continue reading Picking Cherries
The first quarter started with a bang but ended with a thud. The US stock market was basically flat and the bond market was modestly up. The widespread global recession rhetoric seems to be quieting. This is particularly true in the US where we have been pointing out economic conditions are not as bad as … Continue reading Fitting the Earnings Shoe
Market volatility picked up significantly in August and US stocks have been teetering in and out of correction territory ever since. Uncertainty is pervasive and investors' nerves are rattled. At times like these, it's more important than ever to manage expectations and maintain appropriate expectations. A market correction is generally defined as a pullback of … Continue reading Never a Wrong Time
With about every major US equity index making new highs, many investors are nervous about US stocks. I don't know if there's an impending stock market crash, but regardless at BCM we favor foreign developed market equities for the time being. Here are a few reasons why. Western Europe appears to be trailing the US … Continue reading Looking Abroad
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