I've been asked several times what will cause the next major bear market, what's the proverbial "next shoe to drop?" In 2018 some thought Bitcoin's collapse would be it and this year some are pointing at passive investing. While I think these issues could exacerbate market swings, that's different from saying they will be the … Continue reading Heavy Shoes for the Holidays
An excerpt from my recent article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Passive investing has enjoyed a tremendous rise in interest and popularity from investors over the past decade. Following that rise, the number of passive investment products, like index funds and ETFs, has also taken off. So much so that some fear passive investing is the next … Continue reading The Big Short, Part Deux?
An excerpt from my recent article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Pakistan goes back some 5,000 years and has a storied history of assimilating European, Asian, and Arab influences over millennia. Today, Pakistan has an equally interesting future that should be promising, but it's also debilitated by some serious problems. In this article, we'll unpack what's right and … Continue reading Unpacking Pakistan
Bulls running high Markets exhaled a sigh of relief following the US-China trade truce and US stocks are retesting all-time highs. Like I wrote earlier this year, the new-highs are not a surprise and there could be even more upside if Chairman Powell delivers on anticipated rate cuts. Ironically, these new highs could signal a topping … Continue reading Burning Out
"Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement take $800 and take it to Las Vegas " - Paul Samuelson. Spoken like the Nobel Laureate he was, Dr. Samuelson's simple, timeless words of wisdom resound true until this day. Long-term investors should focus on fundamental data rather than … Continue reading Paint, Grass, and Data
It's the 19-year anniversary of the dot-com bust, and ironically markets are again awash in a deluge of fantastic IPOs. This time the fantasy has gone next level and involves a stampede of mythical unicorns. During the dot-com boom, it was unthinkable to value a pre-IPO company at over $1 billion (a unicorn). But as … Continue reading Chasing Unicorns
I wrote in December widespread market fear and pessimism in the US seemed like an overreaction based on fundamental data. To be clear, I don't think US stocks are a good bargain, and I prefer emerging markets anyway. But the YTD rally does support my view that the sell-off in Q4 was technical, and as … Continue reading Cracks in the Wall
From a Western perspective, many things about China are hard to understand. For example, a communist government with a market economy, or the "one country, two systems" arrangement between Hong Kong and the mainland. The Chinese stock market is even more confounding. Quotes flash red on upticks and green on downticks. There are more share … Continue reading One Country, Many Reasons
'Twas the eve before Christmas and not a Santa rally in sight. Year-to-date the S&P 500 is on the cusp of a bear market, closing down -19.78% from its all-time high of 2,930.75 in September. The sell-off began in October and has been swift and fierce, summoning flashbacks of the S&P 500's harrowing drawdown of … Continue reading Fear and Santa
The last two months have been choppy for stocks. The S&P 500 is down about 8% and has given up its gain for the year. Emerging markets have outperformed since October, relatively speaking, but remain the biggest loser YTD, down about 16%. As usual, the financial media is searching, desperately, for something to fear. Does … Continue reading Much Ado About Something
