Heavy Shoes for the Holidays

I've been asked several times what will cause the next major bear market, what's the proverbial "next shoe to drop?"  In 2018 some thought Bitcoin's collapse would be it and this year some are pointing at passive investing. While I think these issues could exacerbate market swings, that's different from saying they will be the … Continue reading Heavy Shoes for the Holidays

The Big Short, Part Deux?

An excerpt from my recent article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Passive investing has enjoyed a tremendous rise in interest and popularity from investors over the past decade. Following that rise, the number of passive investment products, like index funds and ETFs, has also taken off. So much so that some fear passive investing is the next … Continue reading The Big Short, Part Deux?

Unpacking Pakistan

An excerpt from my recent article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Pakistan goes back some 5,000 years and has a storied history of assimilating European, Asian, and Arab influences over millennia.  Today, Pakistan has an equally interesting future that should be promising, but it's also debilitated by some serious problems.  In this article, we'll unpack what's right and … Continue reading Unpacking Pakistan

One Country, Many Reasons

From a Western perspective, many things about China are hard to understand.  For example, a communist government with a market economy, or the "one country, two systems" arrangement between Hong Kong and the mainland. The Chinese stock market is even more confounding.   Quotes flash red on upticks and green on downticks.  There are more share … Continue reading One Country, Many Reasons

Much Ado About Something

The last two months have been choppy for stocks. The S&P 500 is down about 8% and has given up its gain for the year. Emerging markets have outperformed since October, relatively speaking, but remain the biggest loser YTD, down about 16%. As usual, the financial media is searching, desperately, for something to fear. Does … Continue reading Much Ado About Something