’Tis the season to be jolly! The scents of pine cone, mistletoe, and speculation fill the air! Wait... what's that last bit, you ask? Speculation? Yes, it's everywhere. Last month, I noted the rise in US margin debt levels and record low credit spreads. Both are indicators of strong risk appetite among investors. That appetite … Continue reading ‘Tis The Season
You wouldn't know it from watching new highs in the S&P 500, but the U.S. is in week five of the longest government shut down in its history! Whether we characterize it as complacency or optimism, it suggests many investors are throwing caution to the wind. Margin debt reflects the amount of money customers borrow … Continue reading Grains of Data and Salt
Financial markets continue charging higher as we head into Q4 2025. As of Q3 end, global equity market prices were up +18% (ACWI) and U.S. bond market prices advanced +3% (AGG) YTD. Gold remains the big outperformer, with YTD price up by +45% (GLD)! Global Markets Q3 2025 YTD MACRO VIEW Economic conditions have been … Continue reading Q4 2025 Update
U.S. economic and market conditions turned on a dime more than once over the past year. Conditions went from "exceptional" in Q4 2024 to the brink of recession by Q2 2025, only to bounce back to business as usual by the end of the same quarter. The U.S. stock market has been a good reflection … Continue reading Drunken Tea Leaves
The July 8th tariff deadlines came and went without consequence. As expected, pauses were extended by another month to August. So, at the end of July, we face the same circumstances we did on June 30th. Of course, the White House did announce some "deals" following the July pause. Agreements were reached with Japan and … Continue reading Balance, Not Complacency
It's been a fast moving year for the markets and solidly positive overall. Yet, despite wide swings in both directions, markets ended the quarter close to where they were back in February. Year-to-date, global stock prices are up +9.7%. US bond prices are up +2.4%. Gold continues to lead, up +24.1% YTD. Global Markets MACRO … Continue reading Q3 2025 Update
It's been a tumultuous year so far, replete with surprises and hidden dragons. It's not surprising, then, that sentiment and markets have seen volatile swings in both directions. Only a few weeks ago, it seemed like the sky was falling after the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements. One after another, Wall Street Banks changed their outlooks … Continue reading Controlled Breathing
Before its notoriety as an international blockbuster, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" was an ancient Chinese proverb used to describe a person, place, or thing with remarkable but hidden qualities. The current tariffs and trade war resemble an analogous situation for the US with unseen dangers. I recently wrote about the obvious problems of an escalating … Continue reading Couching Tariff, Hidden Danger
What a difference a day makes. Just one day after BCM's Q2 Update, we got a major global shock from the White House. The timing of President Trump's tariff announcement was not a surprise, but it was worse than anyone expected. Although we have more questions than answers, we'll walk through what these developments could … Continue reading Markets Retaliate on Tariffs
After a strong rally in 2024, global stock prices saw a pullback in February and ended Q1 with a decline of -0.8%. U.S. stocks lagged for the first time in a while, and prices were down -4.3% for the quarter. Foreign stocks stayed positive, while gold outshined and was up +17.4% year-to-date. Global Markets Q1 … Continue reading Q2 2025 Update
All eyes are on U.S. equities as domestic big tech stocks have made new highs in prices and valuations over the last year. Ironically, some of the best opportunities ahead are likely outside that narrow sliver of U.S. stocks. For example, foreign equity markets look increasingly more attractive in terms of valuation versus the U.S. … Continue reading Wrong, Right, and Real in Emerging Markets
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