MACRO OVERVIEW Global equity markets notched a new all time high in early September only to pull back since. The rise in market volatility has some fearing another meltdown. To be clear, nobody knows what happens next, but it's worth noting how current economic and market conditions contrast with Q1. Figure 1: Global Equity Market … Continue reading Macro Value Update, Q3 2020
Investors faced a litany of doubts this year. Raging dysfunction in DC, a string of natural disasters, and even threat of nuclear war. But investors aren't shaken. Year to date the S&P 500 is up 16%+, the EAFE 22%, and EM 32% (represented below by returns for SPY, EFA, and EEM respectively). YTD Total Returns … Continue reading Climbing the Wall
In April I wrote about the Nigerian stock market. Since May the Nigerian market is up 30%. Over the same period, the global stock market has basically been flat (shown below). Nigerian Stock Market and Global Stock Market represented by NGE and VT, respectively Timing-wise this was lucky-- I didn't predict a two-week turnaround. … Continue reading From Nigeria with Love
Back in September, I wrote about the Greek stock market. I pointed out that widespread pessimism, low expectations, and attractive valuation created an easy hurdle for an upside surprise. Since then Greece has been on fire, up over 35%! But despite an increase in price, the Greek market P/E has actually fallen from 4.7x down … Continue reading Greece on Fire
Judging by the news coming out of West Africa, one might think the region has nothing but pirates and warlords. But a closer look reveals a diamond in the rough, you may know as Nigeria. Maybe you cringe at the thought of investing there, but that's more reason to consider it. Here are some noteworthy … Continue reading Diamond in the Rough
After improving economic prospects earlier this year, Japan has abruptly reversed course. A third-quarter annualized GDP reading of negative -.8% puts Japan back in a technical recession (defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth). Following stimulative policies (aka "Abenomics") by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and a blossoming recovery from 2014's technical recession, many assumed … Continue reading Japan’s Footsteps
Following a choppy third quarter, global markets have made a comeback. Since October 1, the S&P 500 and EAFE have both rebounded over 5%, and emerging markets have bounced by more than 8%. Strangely enough, the same fears that stoked the sell-off also seem to be fueling the rally. Investors who disliked the uncertainty … Continue reading Full Swing Voting
After more than doubling since 2014, China's stock market has fallen about 30% over the past couple of months. That has investors holding their breath and scratching their heads at the same time. Everyone wants to know what's behind the selloff -- and there are many theories to meet the demand. I don't know why … Continue reading Red is the New Green
With about every major US equity index making new highs, many investors are nervous about US stocks. I don't know if there's an impending stock market crash, but regardless at BCM we favor foreign developed market equities for the time being. Here are a few reasons why. Western Europe appears to be trailing the US … Continue reading Looking Abroad
Today S&P announced it cut the credit rating on Russian sovereign debt to junk status. The Russian equity market slid about 8% on that news, but the damage wasn't as bad as some may have thought. That's because the downgrade was widely expected, and of course, the Russian market is already down more than 60% … Continue reading Anything and Everything for Russia
Following a calm start to 2014, financial markets ended the third quarter with a spike up in volatility. Global stock prices fell by 3.79% in the third quarter but still managed a year to date return of 3.80%. Risky asset prices, in general, were down across the board. Most notably, foreign developed market stock prices were … Continue reading Third Quarter Recap
In the previous post, I made the long-term case for commodities. In this post, we'll consider an indirect way to get exposure to them. It's common knowledge that emerging market economies tend to be correlated with commodity prices. That's because emerging markets are often dependent on the export of natural resources, making them "banana republics," … Continue reading Russia Looks Rich & Cheap
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