At year-end 2025, consensus expectations were for a continued rally in risk assets. The economy was growing, earnings were beating estimates, and stock markets were making new highs. Investors were optimistic, and equity analyst forecasts for the S&P 500 ranged from 7100 to 8100, predicting another double-digit year. One quarter doesn't make a year, but … Continue reading Q2 2026 Update
Like the saying goes,"beauty is in the eye of the beholder." It turns out the same can be said about stock market valuation. In December, I wrote the U.S. equity market eclipsed an all-time-high in terms of market cap to GDP. Yet, other measures look different. For example, the venerable Shiller P/E Ratio shows the … Continue reading Eye of the Beholder
BCM's latest Investor Letter is available at bellwethercm.com/insights.
2025 is winding up to be another great year for financial markets. Global stock market prices are on pace to return more than +21% for the year. Although U.S. stocks didn't take the lead in 2025, they are still up by double digits. They also set an unsettling new record. By at least one measure, … Continue reading An Unlikely Ending
’Tis the season to be jolly! The scents of pine cone, mistletoe, and speculation fill the air! Wait... what's that last bit, you ask? Speculation? Yes, it's everywhere. Last month, I noted the rise in US margin debt levels and record low credit spreads. Both are indicators of strong risk appetite among investors. That appetite … Continue reading ‘Tis The Season
You wouldn't know it from watching new highs in the S&P 500, but the U.S. is in week five of the longest government shut down in its history! Whether we characterize it as complacency or optimism, it suggests many investors are throwing caution to the wind. Margin debt reflects the amount of money customers borrow … Continue reading Grains of Salt and Data
Financial markets continue charging higher as we head into Q4 2025. As of Q3 end, global equity market prices were up +18% (ACWI) and U.S. bond market prices advanced +3% (AGG) YTD. Gold remains the big outperformer, with YTD price up by +45% (GLD)! Global Markets Q3 2025 YTD MACRO VIEW Economic conditions have been … Continue reading Q4 2025 Update
U.S. economic and market conditions turned on a dime more than once over the past year. Conditions went from "exceptional" in Q4 2024 to the brink of recession by Q2 2025, only to bounce back to business as usual by the end of the same quarter. The U.S. stock market has been a good reflection … Continue reading Drunken Tea Leaves
The July 8th tariff deadlines came and went without consequence. As expected, pauses were extended by another month to August. So, at the end of July, we face the same circumstances we did on June 30th. Of course, the White House did announce some "deals" following the July pause. Agreements were reached with Japan and … Continue reading Balance, Not Complacency
It's been a fast moving year for the markets and solidly positive overall. Yet, despite wide swings in both directions, markets ended the quarter close to where they were back in February. Year-to-date, global stock prices are up +9.7%. US bond prices are up +2.4%. Gold continues to lead, up +24.1% YTD. Global Markets MACRO … Continue reading Q3 2025 Update
It's been a tumultuous year so far, replete with surprises and hidden dragons. It's not surprising, then, that sentiment and markets have seen volatile swings in both directions. Only a few weeks ago, it seemed like the sky was falling after the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements. One after another, Wall Street Banks changed their outlooks … Continue reading Controlled Breathing
Before its notoriety as an international blockbuster, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" was an ancient Chinese proverb used to describe a person, place, or thing with remarkable but hidden qualities. The current tariffs and trade war resemble an analogous situation for the US with unseen dangers. I recently wrote about the obvious problems of an escalating … Continue reading Couching Tariff, Hidden Danger
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