KISSing with Stocks

Uncertainty loves complexity Uncertainty remains high with respect to the economy and the markets. On the one hand, we have a steeply inverted yield curve and a deteriorating housing market. But on the other, we have improving sentiment and a strong jobs market. The truth is nobody really knows what happens next and we can … Continue reading KISSing with Stocks

Q4 2022 Update

OVERVIEW The third quarter began with a broad rebound in risk assets. The global equity market regained +13% from its June lows by mid-August. However, sentiment turned again and markets have been volatile since. Year-to-date the global stock market is down near-26%. Emerging markets fared worse, down close to -28%. The losses are broad even … Continue reading Q4 2022 Update

How to Know if The Bear Market is Ending

The bear market of 2022 feels more painful than usual because of how broad the selloff has been. From stocks to bonds, to real estate, to cryptocurrency, it seems like there's nowhere to hide. We're all hoping for a bottom in stocks, but hope itself will not help us find one. Fortunately, there are indicators … Continue reading How to Know if The Bear Market is Ending

Not Yet Broken

Equity markets bounced in June, reinvigorated by strong employment data, "no recession" calls from key policymakers, and hopes the Fed would "pivot" away from aggressive rate hikes. Some believed June marked the bottom and we were starting a new bull market. I wasn't convinced by policymakers and wrote markets may want to hold the champagne … Continue reading Not Yet Broken

A Familiar Song & Confetti

Today, Chairman Powell reiterated the US is not in recession and will continue to grow in the second half of 2022. Other public officials agree, US Treasury secretary Yellen and US President Biden recently affirmed their own "no recession" opinions. The argument emphasizes a strong labor market and an unemployment rate that hovers near the … Continue reading A Familiar Song & Confetti

Q3 2022 Update

MARKET OVERVIEW The global sell-off in financial markets accelerated during Q2. Global equities officially entered a bear market, breaching the technical definition of a -20% decline. US stocks were down most, but all major equity regions were down double digits year-to-date. Even the US bond market was off by -10% for the year. Figure 1: … Continue reading Q3 2022 Update