BCM on investing, the markets, and things that make them tick.®
I wrote in March that U.S. economic and market conditions continued to improve in 2024, and that was positive for risk assets. As though right on cue, the global equity markets began a month-long downturn in April. Clearly, market timing is not a forte of mine, nor has it ever been! To be fair, I … Continue reading Bad News Good News
The global equity market advanced another +9% in Q1 2024 (represented by ACWI below). U.S. stocks led the way, again. The U.S. bond market (AGG) prices fell -2% over the same period. Gold prices (GLD) moved sideways for much of the quarter but jumped almost +10% in February. The biggest headline in Q1 was Bitcoin … Continue reading Q2 2024 Update
Last November, I wrote The Trend is Your Friend. The post summarized improvements observed in various economic and market data and also discussed the age-old market wisdom to not fight a prevailing trend. Based on what we saw, conditions supported increasing risk exposure. That move worked in our favor because markets continued their upward trend. … Continue reading Still Friends
BCM is pleased to share its 2024 Investor Letter. Clients may view the letter and an archive of previous letters at BCM's website bellwethercm.com/insights. For clients who need access, please contact BCM, thank you.
2023 ended up being a great year for the financial markets. Equity markets are up double digits, crypto is again shooting for the moon, and even gold and U.S. bonds are up for the year. But it also proved to be challenging for investors, both novice and professional alike. For example, at the beginning of … Continue reading 100% & 180 Degrees Later
"The trend is your friend" is an old market adage known by traders old and new alike. Other sayings like "take what the market gives you" and "don't fight the tape" share a similar underlying principle that forms the basis for investing approaches like "momentum" and "trend-following" strategies. The principal is simple, markets typically move … Continue reading When Trend is Your Friend
Market divergence I've written a few times about the divergence in equity markets this year, and that divergence continues. In the U.S. the S&P 500 gave back a chunk of its YTD gains since July but is still up +9.35% as of October 31st. Meanwhile, an equal weight index of the S&P 500 has turned … Continue reading Divergence Continues
Markets moved lower in Q3 and off their highs reached in July. The global stock market was down -3.95% in the quarter (ACWI). Meanwhile, the U.S. bond market was down -3.63% over the same period (AGG). Economic indicators were mixed as the U.S. economy continued to search for a definitive direction. Global Markets Q3 2023 … Continue reading Q4 2023 Update
Last month I wrote about changes in economic conditions in 2023. The changes continue but we are seeing more dispersion. One surprise in 2023 was in U.S. housing. Despite widespread forecasts of doom and gloom, housing started the year with months of sudden and unexpected gains. Just as people were rationalizing those gains, single-family home … Continue reading What Changes May Come
The U.S. economy continues to defy what has been one of the most anticipated recessions in history. Heading into 2023 the economics team at Bloomberg saw the odds of a U.S. recession at 100%. They weren't alone. Economists at The Conference Board, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Center For Economic Business … Continue reading First Time Ever, Again
OVERVIEW Q2 saw a continuation of the rally in global risk assets from the lows of Q4 2022. The global stock market (ACWI)was up +13% year-to-date as of June 30 while the U.S. bond market was nearly flat at +0.4% (AGG). The bulls are in the driver's seat but bumps remain in the road ahead. … Continue reading Q3 2023 Update
Storied debt ceiling games Once upon a time, the U.S. government imposed a limit on how much the country could borrow. A debt ceiling was a prudent idea and a good story, but in reality, that ceiling was breached countless times since its inception. In January of this year, the U.S. broke above the most … Continue reading Playing Dirty with Default
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