Macro Value Update, Q3 2020

MACRO OVERVIEW Global equity markets notched a new all time high in early September only to pull back since. The rise in market volatility has some fearing another meltdown. To be clear, nobody knows what happens next, but it's worth noting how current economic and market conditions contrast with Q1. Figure 1: Global Equity Market … Continue reading Macro Value Update, Q3 2020

Tactical Allocation Update, Q3 2020

QUARTER REVIEW Global equity markets continued their ascend from their Q1 lows. As of September 30, the MSCI ACWI (global stock market) is +1.89% year-to-date. That doesn't sound like much, but that's after recovering the -36% peak-to-trough decline from Q1. From that perspective, this year has been nothing short of remarkable. Figure 1: Global Equity … Continue reading Tactical Allocation Update, Q3 2020

For Better or Worse

Global equity markets have continued an "unprecedented" rally and in the US the S&P 500 has notched a new all-time-high. Many intelligent investors have watched in disbelief as stocks shot up despite dismal economic conditions. But the seemingly irrational market may be more logical than it appears. Caution and Uncertainty BCM was certainly in the … Continue reading For Better or Worse

Macro Value Update, Q2 2020

MACRO OVERVIEW "Unprecedented" is the word of choice among investors trying to make sense of the market's wild swings this year. After one of the fastest bear markets ever in Q1, global equities surprised with an equally furious comeback in Q2. But the rally has been at odds with deteriorating fundamentals, clear in the divergence … Continue reading Macro Value Update, Q2 2020

When Boring is Better

MARKET SUMMARY After a strong 2019, global equity markets made an abrupt move to the downside in the past month. Most major stock markets have officially entered into bear market territory and are down between 20% to 30%. Figure 1: Global Equity Markets YTD Price Returns With markets already uneasy about slowing economic conditions, the … Continue reading When Boring is Better

Fearing the Pandemic

An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Last month, I wrote a piece on coronavirus and China. This month it's clear COVID-19 has become a global concern. While people all over the world are still grappling with the viral pandemic, markets are overcome by a fear pandemic and already in correction territory. Markets are … Continue reading Fearing the Pandemic

When China Sneezes…

An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Fear is in the air It used to be "when America sneezes, the world catches a cold," but recent market action shows China may be the new snotty-nosed kid on the block. I mean the now-notorious coronavirus. Since its outbreak, the news flow has been frantic and … Continue reading When China Sneezes…