An excerpt from my latest article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Nobody likes energy stocks. They're boring, old oil conglomerates on-trend for a long-term decline. In 2020, US energy sector stocks were down some -37% as measured by the Select Sector SPDR Energy ETF (XLE) versus +16% for the S&P 500 (SPY). Figure 1: XLE vs SPY … Continue reading It’s Business As Usual for Energy
MACRO VALUE IS NOW MACRO ALLOCATION A quick update, moving forward our "Macro Value" strategy is being renamed to "Macro Allocation." This name change reflects adjustments we made to the strategy over the past year. The core principles are still the same, a macro approach with an emphasis on value. However, as I have been … Continue reading Macro Value (is Now Macro Allocation) Update, Q1 2021
THE DEATH OF VALUE The death knell for "value-investing" has rung many times over the years. And after a decade of lagging explosive growth stocks (like "FANGMAT") it rings louder than ever. The divergence between growth and value has reached historical levels and now looks even more stretched than during the 1990s dot-com boom. Is … Continue reading Long and Short of Value
I've written the past couple of years that the energy sector is ripe with opportunity. Simply put, we burn more energy than we have fossil fuel and that creates an obvious need for change. I've stated my case for alternatives like nuclear and solar. The long-term outlook for both are still positive, but we've already … Continue reading Only Natural
Both the ACWI and the S&P 500 gained more than 20% in 2017. US stocks continue to look expensive. Of course, that doesn't mean they can't continue to climb -- they've looked expensive for several years. But 2018 may be the year to be more selective. The table below shows the trailing P/E ratios for … Continue reading Digging Deeper for Energy
Back in October of last year I wrote nuclear power was a promising source of alternative energy. I also promised to write more on the topic. Last month I shared my thoughts in BCM's latest Investor Letter (A Bright Future), I'll reiterate my thoughts here. The simple fact is we need more energy than we have … Continue reading Going Nuclear
There are few sectors that are in absolute need of progress. For example, if the tech sector were to never again experience a great leap forward, we'd all be fine. And if healthcare were unable to extend average longevity beyond 70 years, we'd all be okay (except for the 70+ maybe). But it just isn't … Continue reading Powering the Future
Seems like everybody hates solar stocks. They're down big, but with reason. Earnings have been dismal and financials have been deteriorating. Prominent names like Solar City and Sun Power are simultaneously burning through cash and piling up debt. Adding insult to injury, two years of capitulating oil prices have softened demand for alternative energy. … Continue reading Looking for Bright Spots
The first quarter started with a bang but ended with a thud. The US stock market was basically flat and the bond market was modestly up. The widespread global recession rhetoric seems to be quieting. This is particularly true in the US where we have been pointing out economic conditions are not as bad as … Continue reading Fitting the Earnings Shoe
The year's not quite over, but I think it's safe to say that oil prices will be one of 2014's biggest losers. Year to date crude oil prices are down close to 50%. It's hard to believe that even just months ago many people assumed we'd never see oil prices below $100 per barrel again! … Continue reading Not the Biggest Loser
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