Time for Turkey? The Holidays are almost here, but no, I'm not writing about your upcoming Thanksgiving dinner. I'm writing about a Turkey with Lira that's down 90% against USD and an equity market that's down 70% from its highs. TUR data by YCharts When others are fearful Emerging market equities have sold off broadly year-to-date. … Continue reading Time for Turkey?
Longest ever? The US stock market closed August to the accolades of "the longest bull market in history." By some measures, the S&P 500 achieved its longest rally ever. Then again, by other measures, it did not. S&P 500, 1927 to 2018 Monthly close, inflation adjusted. Souce: MacroTrends.net There's a lack of consensus on how this … Continue reading Actually, Technically, the Longest
Emerging markets are down close to 7% YTD as of the end of July. The reasons are various -- rising interest rates, softening economic data, and US tariffs to boot. Unrecognized headliner China is on the front page because of the trade war and its equity market was down over 20% from its YTD highs. … Continue reading Keeping it Real
A nod to The Fat Pitch blog for an excellent reminder of why macro still matters. In an age of fast money and high-frequency-trading, macro considerations may seem too slow and antiquated to be relevant. But as I wrote in my very first post (and many times since), it would behoove us to remember that financial markets … Continue reading Macro Matters
Volatility returns Stock market volatility is back. In February this year, the S&P 500 posted the largest single-day point fall in its history, only to rebound with the fourth largest single-day rise in history. All that volatility has some questioning if it still makes sense to invest in the stock market. S&P 500 BEST & WORST SINGLE DAY POINT … Continue reading Patience and Profits
I've written the past couple of years that the energy sector is ripe with opportunity. Simply put, we burn more energy than we have fossil fuel and that creates an obvious need for change. I've stated my case for alternatives like nuclear and solar. The long-term outlook for both are still positive, but we've already … Continue reading Only Natural
Cradle of civilization Egypt has been called the "cradle of civilization." Egyptians are tied to some of the earliest forms of language, agriculture, and technology that's known to man. While the country has experienced its share of modern social and political issues, Egypt today is ripe with potential. Consider the following characteristics. The most populated … Continue reading Egypt Waits for Spring
Last year I made the case for solar stocks. I was reasonably optimistic about the long-term prospects for the industry and thought stock prices looked meaningfully undervalued. I got lucky timing-wise because solar stocks were up 54% in 2017 -- that much I did not expect. Source: etfreplay.com Of course, I'm not complaining. But valuations … Continue reading Dimming the Lights
Both the ACWI and the S&P 500 gained more than 20% in 2017. US stocks continue to look expensive. Of course, that doesn't mean they can't continue to climb -- they've looked expensive for several years. But 2018 may be the year to be more selective. The table below shows the trailing P/E ratios for … Continue reading Digging Deeper for Energy
Investors faced a litany of doubts this year. Raging dysfunction in DC, a string of natural disasters, and even threat of nuclear war. But investors aren't shaken. Year to date the S&P 500 is up 16%+, the EAFE 22%, and EM 32% (represented below by returns for SPY, EFA, and EEM respectively). YTD Total Returns … Continue reading Climbing the Wall
US stocks are in one of the longest bull markets in history. Many are warning of extended market valuations. Two of the most highly regarded valuation measures seem to agree. The chart below shows Dr. Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio has reached levels surpassed only by the dot-com bubble peak in 2000. CAPE Ratio Source: Multpl … Continue reading No Market for Old Men
In April I wrote about the Nigerian stock market. Since May the Nigerian market is up 30%. Over the same period, the global stock market has basically been flat (shown below). Nigerian Stock Market and Global Stock Market represented by NGE and VT, respectively Timing-wise this was lucky-- I didn't predict a two-week turnaround. … Continue reading From Nigeria with Love
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