QUARTER REVIEW Global equity markets continued their ascend from their Q1 lows. As of September 30, the MSCI ACWI (global stock market) is +1.89% year-to-date. That doesn't sound like much, but that's after recovering the -36% peak-to-trough decline from Q1. From that perspective, this year has been nothing short of remarkable. Figure 1: Global Equity … Continue reading Tactical Allocation Update, Q3 2020
Global equity markets have continued an "unprecedented" rally and in the US the S&P 500 has notched a new all-time-high. Many intelligent investors have watched in disbelief as stocks shot up despite dismal economic conditions. But the seemingly irrational market may be more logical than it appears. Caution and Uncertainty BCM was certainly in the … Continue reading For Better or Worse
US equities bounced hard off their March lows. The disconnect with fundamental data has many intelligent investors trying to explain the rally with acronyms like FOMO and TINA. But the best explanation may come from the original Intelligent Investor Benjamin Graham who said, "in the short-run, the market is a voting machine, but in the … Continue reading Stupid Acronyms
An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. We just experienced one of the fastest bear market drawdowns in history and the S&P 500 was down -36% from peak to trough. Since then, we've also had a quick bounce of +27%. The whipsaw has everyone guessing if the stock market bottomed in March. Of course, … Continue reading A Hopeless Bottom
MARKET SUMMARY After a strong 2019, global equity markets made an abrupt move to the downside in the past month. Most major stock markets have officially entered into bear market territory and are down between 20% to 30%. Figure 1: Global Equity Markets YTD Price Returns With markets already uneasy about slowing economic conditions, the … Continue reading When Boring is Better
An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Last month, I wrote a piece on coronavirus and China. This month it's clear COVID-19 has become a global concern. While people all over the world are still grappling with the viral pandemic, markets are overcome by a fear pandemic and already in correction territory. Markets are … Continue reading Fearing the Pandemic
An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Fear is in the air It used to be "when America sneezes, the world catches a cold," but recent market action shows China may be the new snotty-nosed kid on the block. I mean the now-notorious coronavirus. Since its outbreak, the news flow has been frantic and … Continue reading When China Sneezes…
Stocks are set to close on a great 2019. Year to date, global stocks are up well over 20%. US stocks have led and are making new all-time highs along the way. Fed Chair Powell has suggested no more rate hikes in 2020 and President Trump announced a "phase one" agreement in the US-China trade … Continue reading Full Circle
I've been asked several times what will cause the next major bear market, what's the proverbial "next shoe to drop?" In 2018 some thought Bitcoin's collapse would be it and this year some are pointing at passive investing. While I think these issues could exacerbate market swings, that's different from saying they will be the … Continue reading Heavy Shoes for the Holidays
Much ink has been spilled over the inverted US Treasury yield curve lately, and I'm guilty of adding to the mess in my previous posts. This is a topic that may seem abstract and complicated to some, but it's actually quite simple. We'll clarify the concept in this post for those puzzled by all the … Continue reading Reading Yield Leaves
Bulls running high Markets exhaled a sigh of relief following the US-China trade truce and US stocks are retesting all-time highs. Like I wrote earlier this year, the new-highs are not a surprise and there could be even more upside if Chairman Powell delivers on anticipated rate cuts. Ironically, these new highs could signal a topping … Continue reading Burning Out
Back to 1 Last year when the 10-year Treasury yield breached 3% the markets were convinced the era of low long-term rates was over. But yields are now back down to a 2% handle. And just as quickly as some predicted 5% Treasury yields, some are now predicting 1%. 10-YEAR US TREASURY YIELDS Fixed-income investors … Continue reading Hungry For Yield
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