An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Last month, I wrote a piece on coronavirus and China. This month it's clear COVID-19 has become a global concern. While people all over the world are still grappling with the viral pandemic, markets are overcome by a fear pandemic and already in correction territory. Markets are … Continue reading Fearing the Pandemic
An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Fear is in the air It used to be "when America sneezes, the world catches a cold," but recent market action shows China may be the new snotty-nosed kid on the block. I mean the now-notorious coronavirus. Since its outbreak, the news flow has been frantic and … Continue reading When China Sneezes…
Stocks are set to close on a great 2019. Year to date, global stocks are up well over 20%. US stocks have led and are making new all-time highs along the way. Fed Chair Powell has suggested no more rate hikes in 2020 and President Trump announced a "phase one" agreement in the US-China trade … Continue reading Full Circle
I've been asked several times what will cause the next major bear market, what's the proverbial "next shoe to drop?" In 2018 some thought Bitcoin's collapse would be it and this year some are pointing at passive investing. While I think these issues could exacerbate market swings, that's different from saying they will be the … Continue reading Heavy Shoes for the Holidays
Much ink has been spilled over the inverted US Treasury yield curve lately, and I'm guilty of adding to the mess in my previous posts. This is a topic that may seem abstract and complicated to some, but it's actually quite simple. We'll clarify the concept in this post for those puzzled by all the … Continue reading Reading Yield Leaves
Bulls running high Markets exhaled a sigh of relief following the US-China trade truce and US stocks are retesting all-time highs. Like I wrote earlier this year, the new-highs are not a surprise and there could be even more upside if Chairman Powell delivers on anticipated rate cuts. Ironically, these new highs could signal a topping … Continue reading Burning Out
Back to 1 Last year when the 10-year Treasury yield breached 3% the markets were convinced the era of low long-term rates was over. But yields are now back down to a 2% handle. And just as quickly as some predicted 5% Treasury yields, some are now predicting 1%. 10-YEAR US TREASURY YIELDS Fixed-income investors … Continue reading Hungry For Yield
"Investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement take $800 and take it to Las Vegas " - Paul Samuelson. Spoken like the Nobel Laureate he was, Dr. Samuelson's simple, timeless words of wisdom resound true until this day. Long-term investors should focus on fundamental data rather than … Continue reading Paint, Grass, and Data
I wrote in December widespread market fear and pessimism in the US seemed like an overreaction based on fundamental data. To be clear, I don't think US stocks are a good bargain, and I prefer emerging markets anyway. But the YTD rally does support my view that the sell-off in Q4 was technical, and as … Continue reading Cracks in the Wall
'Twas the eve before Christmas and not a Santa rally in sight. Year-to-date the S&P 500 is on the cusp of a bear market, closing down -19.78% from its all-time high of 2,930.75 in September. The sell-off began in October and has been swift and fierce, summoning flashbacks of the S&P 500's harrowing drawdown of … Continue reading Fear and Santa
The last two months have been choppy for stocks. The S&P 500 is down about 8% and has given up its gain for the year. Emerging markets have outperformed since October, relatively speaking, but remain the biggest loser YTD, down about 16%. As usual, the financial media is searching, desperately, for something to fear. Does … Continue reading Much Ado About Something
A nod to The Fat Pitch blog for an excellent reminder of why macro still matters. In an age of fast money and high-frequency-trading, macro considerations may seem too slow and antiquated to be relevant. But as I wrote in my very first post (and many times since), it would behoove us to remember that financial markets … Continue reading Macro Matters
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