Q2 2021 Update

NOTE ON UPDATES Starting with Q1 2021, BCM is consolidating its various update notes into a single "Quarter Update," labelled as "Quarter Update" under Categories. This reduces redundancy and makes updates easier to follow. QUARTER REVIEW Q1 started with a rally in risk assets, but equity markets are still off their all-time-highs notched in February. … Continue reading Q2 2021 Update

Tactical Allocation Update, Q4 2020

QUARTER REVIEW The fourth quarter capped what can only be described as a breath-taking year for the markets (and the world). The global equity market rose +15.15% in 2020, as measured by the MSCI ACWI. While that doesn't look outstanding by itself, keep it mind that was after clawing back a -34% decline from Q1 … Continue reading Tactical Allocation Update, Q4 2020

Tactical Allocation Update, Q3 2020

QUARTER REVIEW Global equity markets continued their ascend from their Q1 lows. As of September 30, the MSCI ACWI (global stock market) is +1.89% year-to-date. That doesn't sound like much, but that's after recovering the -36% peak-to-trough decline from Q1. From that perspective, this year has been nothing short of remarkable. Figure 1: Global Equity … Continue reading Tactical Allocation Update, Q3 2020

When Boring is Better

MARKET SUMMARY After a strong 2019, global equity markets made an abrupt move to the downside in the past month. Most major stock markets have officially entered into bear market territory and are down between 20% to 30%. Figure 1: Global Equity Markets YTD Price Returns With markets already uneasy about slowing economic conditions, the … Continue reading When Boring is Better

Fearing the Pandemic

An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Last month, I wrote a piece on coronavirus and China. This month it's clear COVID-19 has become a global concern. While people all over the world are still grappling with the viral pandemic, markets are overcome by a fear pandemic and already in correction territory. Markets are … Continue reading Fearing the Pandemic

When China Sneezes…

An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Fear is in the air It used to be "when America sneezes, the world catches a cold," but recent market action shows China may be the new snotty-nosed kid on the block. I mean the now-notorious coronavirus. Since its outbreak, the news flow has been frantic and … Continue reading When China Sneezes…

Heavy Shoes for the Holidays

I've been asked several times what will cause the next major bear market, what's the proverbial "next shoe to drop?"  In 2018 some thought Bitcoin's collapse would be it and this year some are pointing at passive investing. While I think these issues could exacerbate market swings, that's different from saying they will be the … Continue reading Heavy Shoes for the Holidays