Yesterday, the US made history with an upset of presidential proportions. Despite being a huge underdog, Donald Trump clinched the presidency from strongly favored Hillary Clinton (who pollsters estimated had a 90% probability of winning). Following the upset, investor uncertainty spiked and Dow futures traded down more than 800 points. Yet the S&P 500 actually … Continue reading Surprise, Surprise
Category: economy
Fitting the Earnings Shoe
The first quarter started with a bang but ended with a thud. The US stock market was basically flat and the bond market was modestly up. The widespread global recession rhetoric seems to be quieting. This is particularly true in the US where we have been pointing out economic conditions are not as bad as … Continue reading Fitting the Earnings Shoe
The US Muddles Along
As I've been pointing out, economic conditions in the US aren't as bad as some fear mongers in the financial media are portraying. To be clear, conditions aren't spectacular. Growth is muted and prospects aren't stellar. But on the margin, the US economy continues to grind forward with no imminent signs of the dreaded "R" … Continue reading The US Muddles Along
This Time is Different
2016 has started off with a bang. The S&P 500 is off more than 7% in January, one of the worst calendar-year starts in history. That has everyone wondering if 2016 will be the year of the next big market crash. Though Reinhart and Rogoff might argue otherwise -- I think this time may actually … Continue reading This Time is Different
Japan’s Footsteps
After improving economic prospects earlier this year, Japan has abruptly reversed course. A third-quarter annualized GDP reading of negative -.8% puts Japan back in a technical recession (defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth). Following stimulative policies (aka "Abenomics") by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and a blossoming recovery from 2014's technical recession, many assumed … Continue reading Japan’s Footsteps
Rolling the Dice
The third quarter is officially in the books, and it ended a dicey one. Global stocks ended the quarter squarely in correction territory, the FTSE Global All Cap Index was down 10.5% for the period. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was down 7.3%, the EAFE was down 10.1%, and emerging markets were the worst at … Continue reading Rolling the Dice
Big Trouble in Little Athens, Revisted
It's been over five years since Greece's current financial crisis started making public headlines. Since then Greece has received more than 240 billion Euros of bailout loans from the ECB, the IMF, and the EU (aka the "Troika"). That figure doesn't include the "phantom" aid that Greece also received in the form of the debt … Continue reading Big Trouble in Little Athens, Revisted
Looking Abroad
With about every major US equity index making new highs, many investors are nervous about US stocks. I don't know if there's an impending stock market crash, but regardless at BCM we favor foreign developed market equities for the time being. Here are a few reasons why. Western Europe appears to be trailing the US … Continue reading Looking Abroad
Anything and Everything for Russia
Today S&P announced it cut the credit rating on Russian sovereign debt to junk status. The Russian equity market slid about 8% on that news, but the damage wasn't as bad as some may have thought. That's because the downgrade was widely expected, and of course, the Russian market is already down more than 60% … Continue reading Anything and Everything for Russia
Persistence Over Weakness
Despite some lingering concerns, the US economy continues to chug along in 2014. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released it's the second estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth yesterday and it came in at 3.9% annualized. That's not a terrible number, but it's not a great one either. This persistent, weak growth continues to … Continue reading Persistence Over Weakness
