The year's not quite over, but I think it's safe to say that oil prices will be one of 2014's biggest losers. Year to date crude oil prices are down close to 50%. It's hard to believe that even just months ago many people assumed we'd never see oil prices below $100 per barrel again! … Continue reading Not the Biggest Loser
Category: 2014
Persistence Over Weakness
Despite some lingering concerns, the US economy continues to chug along in 2014. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released it's the second estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth yesterday and it came in at 3.9% annualized. That's not a terrible number, but it's not a great one either. This persistent, weak growth continues to … Continue reading Persistence Over Weakness
Third Quarter Recap
Following a calm start to 2014, financial markets ended the third quarter with a spike up in volatility. Global stock prices fell by 3.79% in the third quarter but still managed a year to date return of 3.80%. Risky asset prices, in general, were down across the board. Most notably, foreign developed market stock prices were … Continue reading Third Quarter Recap
Bill Gross’ Departure from PIMCO
A guest post by Wei Trieu. On September 26, 2014, Bill Gross announced his sudden departure from PIMCO, the firm he co-founded in 1971. This shake-up comes at an already troubling time for the investment company after the heir apparent, Mohamed El-Erian, announced his resignation earlier in the year. The firm’s flagship Total Return fund … Continue reading Bill Gross’ Departure from PIMCO
The End is Near
After almost six years and over $4.4 trillion in asset purchases, the Federal Reserve plans to end its unprecedented monetary policy known as quantitative easing, or “QE,” in November 2014. Though the end of QE has been widely anticipated, the actual termination of the policy represents a major turning point for financial markets, a point … Continue reading The End is Near
The HFT Game
There's been a lot of chatter about high-frequency-trading (HFT) -- here's a quick take on the topic for people scratching their heads. What is HFT anyway? Imagine a stock that's moving up in price due to strong buying demand. A HFT program recognizes the trend and executes thousands of sequential buy and sell orders within … Continue reading The HFT Game
Mid-Year Summary
Despite a surprise slowdown of US economic growth in the first quarter, the stock market has continued to climb higher. The S&P 500 is up by over 7% year-to-date. US equity REITs have been especially strong, already returning more than 17% so far in 2014. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10 year US Treasury yield has fallen … Continue reading Mid-Year Summary
Silver Lining
Many people have been talking about how gold prices plummeted last year. With a 29% loss in 2013, gold recorded its worst annual price decline since 1981. Meanwhile, fewer people seem to notice how silver prices got destroyed -- down by more than 37%! Year to date gold prices rebounded about 6% whereas silver prices … Continue reading Silver Lining
How Speculative is Tesla?
Tesla stock is up by over 1000% since it's IPO. At this point, some think the stock is trading at outrageously speculative levels. The problem is, as with any high-growth stock, that fair value is very difficult to estimate, but we'll try our hand in this post none-the-less. Reality for Tesla California-based Tesla has grown … Continue reading How Speculative is Tesla?
More Than Camaradarie
Those who follow BCM know that I've been watching Russian equities for some time. In the past, I've joked that Russia has more to offer than just stiff vodka and camaraderie -- but it's true. For example, Russia has vast deposits of natural resources including coal, timber, minerals, and natural gas. A little-appreciated fact … Continue reading More Than Camaradarie
A Complicated Relationship
Many people talk about how interest rates can affect bond prices. However, rates can also affect stock prices. Here's a quick summary of the reasons behind that relationship Interest Expense: Interest rates represent an expense for any company that uses credit. As interest rates rise so do the costs of borrowing. All else equal, … Continue reading A Complicated Relationship
Latest Investor Letter
BCM is pleased to share its latest Investor Letter with you. These provide BCM's perspectives on economic and market conditions. You may access an archive of letters and other content at BCM's website, http://www.bellwethercm.com. The BCM Team This blog is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this blog represents advice. Investing is inherently risky and … Continue reading Latest Investor Letter
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