Cradle of civilization Egypt has been called the "cradle of civilization." Egyptians are tied to some of the earliest forms of language, agriculture, and technology that's known to man. While the country has experienced its share of modern social and political issues, Egypt today is ripe with potential. Consider the following characteristics. The most populated … Continue reading Egypt Waits for Spring
Last year I made the case for solar stocks. I was reasonably optimistic about the long-term prospects for the industry and thought stock prices looked meaningfully undervalued. I got lucky timing-wise because solar stocks were up 54% in 2017 -- that much I did not expect. Source: etfreplay.com Of course, I'm not complaining. But valuations … Continue reading Dimming the Lights
Both the ACWI and the S&P 500 gained more than 20% in 2017. US stocks continue to look expensive. Of course, that doesn't mean they can't continue to climb -- they've looked expensive for several years. But 2018 may be the year to be more selective. The table below shows the trailing P/E ratios for … Continue reading Digging Deeper for Energy
On Friday, December 22, President Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into law. This finalized what is considered to be the most significant (and contentious) tax code overhaul in decades. Many questioned if this would be done in 2017. Now that it is, there're only days left for people to react before year … Continue reading A Few Days and Things to Consider
"...but in this world, nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes." -Benjamin Franklin Taxes are certainly top of mind as the Senate plans to vote on a final version of tax reform this week. There's still uncertainty about what will ultimately pass, but as of now, it seems at least a … Continue reading Death and Taxes
Investors faced a litany of doubts this year. Raging dysfunction in DC, a string of natural disasters, and even threat of nuclear war. But investors aren't shaken. Year to date the S&P 500 is up 16%+, the EAFE 22%, and EM 32% (represented below by returns for SPY, EFA, and EEM respectively). YTD Total Returns … Continue reading Climbing the Wall
US stocks are at all-time highs and many valuations measures suggest they are expensive. That doesn't mean the market can't keep rising and it's proven bears wrong for years. However, it's fair to say US stocks don't look cheap by traditional standards. It's actually getting hard to find any market that looks like a compelling … Continue reading Greed and Fear
US stocks are in one of the longest bull markets in history. Many are warning of extended market valuations. Two of the most highly regarded valuation measures seem to agree. The chart below shows Dr. Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio has reached levels surpassed only by the dot-com bubble peak in 2000. CAPE Ratio Source: Multpl … Continue reading No Market for Old Men
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are the dish du jour. Everyone from seasoned investment managers to teen-aged kids wants a taste of the crypto. There's a good reason too, Bitcoin is up almost 300% in the past year alone. But price swings are extreme, enough to make even veteran traders squirm (both in pain and delight). The … Continue reading Bitcoin, Blockchain, and a Bag of Chips
In April I wrote about the Nigerian stock market. Since May the Nigerian market is up 30%. Over the same period, the global stock market has basically been flat (shown below). Nigerian Stock Market and Global Stock Market represented by NGE and VT, respectively Timing-wise this was lucky-- I didn't predict a two-week turnaround. … Continue reading From Nigeria with Love
Back in September, I wrote about the Greek stock market. I pointed out that widespread pessimism, low expectations, and attractive valuation created an easy hurdle for an upside surprise. Since then Greece has been on fire, up over 35%! But despite an increase in price, the Greek market P/E has actually fallen from 4.7x down … Continue reading Greece on Fire
Judging by the news coming out of West Africa, one might think the region has nothing but pirates and warlords. But a closer look reveals a diamond in the rough, you may know as Nigeria. Maybe you cringe at the thought of investing there, but that's more reason to consider it. Here are some noteworthy … Continue reading Diamond in the Rough
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