US defense spending continues to be a target of government budget cuts on Capitol Hill. While this clearly impacts US defense companies, industry leaders may do better than expected. Home of the brave and their weapons The US spends more on defense than any other country. According to SIPRI, the US was responsible for roughly … Continue reading Defense in The Crosshairs
SolarCity is up by more than 535% since its IPO. Since the company is still reporting losses, it's easy to think that its stock is expensive. However, there are some unique challenges to understanding what SolarCity is worth. Here are two issues to consider when trying to value the stock. Reported earnings versus reality In 2008, … Continue reading Is it Time to Go Solar?
Interest rates have moved up this year but are still near historic lows. This is especially true at the front end of the yield curve where people are basically earning nothing on their savings, money market, and even short-term CD accounts (and even losing money net of inflation). Demand from yield-starved investors and the opportunistic … Continue reading No Free Yield
For many investors, realizing the importance of valuation, looking beyond price, is a key epiphany. Valuation is very important, but can also be tricky. For example, consider how many people have forsaken stocks like LinkedIn and Tesla due to their Price to Earnings multiples (high for LNKD and "does not compute" for TSLA). Yes, current … Continue reading On Valuation
One common question we get from clients is whether Roth IRAs or Traditional IRAs are better. Before I try to answer that, let's get one thing out of the way- this isn't tax advice and I'm not a tax advisor. That being said, the answer (in my opinion), is that it really depends. Overview To … Continue reading To Roth or Not?
When it comes to stock investing, conventional thinking dictates that returns are all about capital appreciation. However, for many investors, price appreciation may not be the main driver of total return at all. In fact, dividends can constitute a larger portion of total returns than many people may realize. Dividends Overlooked According to Loomis Sayles, … Continue reading All About Dividends
While lumber doesn't get as much attention as its popular cousins oil and gold, it too is a scarce and valuable natural resource. What's more, I think the secular case for lumber is strong due to how the world is changing. As countries develop and industrialize, they typically follow a pattern of building and resource … Continue reading Yelling Timber!
For those living off a fixed income, the current interest environment is, to say the least, quite unsavory. Extending out to 30 years on the Treasury curve only fetches a paltry 3% (and a taxable 3% at that). This has interest-starved investors loading up on junk bonds and leveraging up bond portfolios (risk parity anyone?). … Continue reading Last Yield Standing
Fixed income investors that were accustomed to earning 5% on a portfolio of government bonds are now getting 2% for the same securities. The steep drop has interest starved investors hunting for yield. As usual, the easiest way to increase yield has been to increase risk, and investors have taken the path of least resistance. … Continue reading Dangers of High Yield Hunting
In the previous post, I made the long-term case for commodities. In this post, we'll consider an indirect way to get exposure to them. It's common knowledge that emerging market economies tend to be correlated with commodity prices. That's because emerging markets are often dependent on the export of natural resources, making them "banana republics," … Continue reading Russia Looks Rich & Cheap
The broad commodity markets have been uneventful over the past two years. While some commodities have outperformed others, and windows of volatility may have been good for trading, the broad commodity markets ended up down in both 2011 and 2012. That being said, commodities should be attractive from a long-term perspective. The reasons are straightforward. Natural resources like oil, metals, … Continue reading Cold, Hard, Commodities
BCM is pleased to share its latest Investor Letter with you. Client letters provide BCM's perspectives on economic and market conditions. You may access an archive of letters and other content at BCM's website, http://www.bellwethercm.com. The BCM Team This blog is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this blog constitutes investment, tax, or legal advice. … Continue reading Latest Investor Letter