Financial markets continue charging higher as we head into Q4 2025. As of Q3 end, global equity market prices were up +18% (ACWI) and U.S. bond market prices advanced +3% (AGG) YTD. Gold remains the big outperformer, with YTD price up by +45% (GLD)! Global Markets Q3 2025 YTD MACRO VIEW Economic conditions have been … Continue reading Q4 2025 Update
Before its notoriety as an international blockbuster, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" was an ancient Chinese proverb used to describe a person, place, or thing with remarkable but hidden qualities. The current tariffs and trade war resemble an analogous situation for the US with unseen dangers. I recently wrote about the obvious problems of an escalating … Continue reading Couching Tariff, Hidden Danger
With stock valuations stretched and bonds being called back into question, U.S. investors will face tough asset allocation decisions in 2025. One simple solution is to maintain balance and avoid making any extreme moves. This isn't paralysis by analysis, rather it is a reasonable position based on facts. While stocks look expensive, economic and market … Continue reading Caution and Opportunity
Storied debt ceiling games Once upon a time, the U.S. government imposed a limit on how much the country could borrow. A debt ceiling was a prudent idea and a good story, but in reality, that ceiling was breached countless times since its inception. In January of this year, the U.S. broke above the most … Continue reading Playing Dirty with Default
OVERVIEW The third quarter began with a broad rebound in risk assets. The global equity market regained +13% from its June lows by mid-August. However, sentiment turned again and markets have been volatile since. Year-to-date the global stock market is down near-26%. Emerging markets fared worse, down close to -28%. The losses are broad even … Continue reading Q4 2022 Update
Much ink has been spilled over the inverted US Treasury yield curve lately, and I'm guilty of adding to the mess in my previous posts. This is a topic that may seem abstract and complicated to some, but it's actually quite simple. We'll clarify the concept in this post for those puzzled by all the … Continue reading Reading Yield Leaves
Back to 1 Last year when the 10-year Treasury yield breached 3% the markets were convinced the era of low long-term rates was over. But yields are now back down to a 2% handle. And just as quickly as some predicted 5% Treasury yields, some are now predicting 1%. 10-YEAR US TREASURY YIELDS Fixed-income investors … Continue reading Hungry For Yield
The official numbers aren't in yet but it looks like 2015 ended without a bang for US markets. The S&P 500 managed somewhere around 1% total return and the Barclay's Aggregate ended up about .5% -- nothing worth getting excited over. Of course, across the globe and everywhere in between there were substantial divergences in … Continue reading Halfway Between Double or Nothing
Back in April, Bill Gross called shorting long-term German Bunds the "short of a lifetime." Gross was basically saying the ~0.95% yield on the 10-year German Treasury was at an unsustainable low, and that an inevitable yield reversal was the biggest "no-brainer" he saw. And he was right! Just shortly after his call yields did … Continue reading Miss of a Lifetime
Speculation has been rampant about when Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve will finally begin raising interest rates. Last month all the buzz was focused on whether Yellen would drop the word "patient" (with respect to rate increases) from her scheduled Fed policy statement. She did, and ever since strategists and traders all up … Continue reading Has Janet Lost Her Patience?
A guest post by Wei Trieu. On September 26, 2014, Bill Gross announced his sudden departure from PIMCO, the firm he co-founded in 1971. This shake-up comes at an already troubling time for the investment company after the heir apparent, Mohamed El-Erian, announced his resignation earlier in the year. The firm’s flagship Total Return fund … Continue reading Bill Gross’ Departure from PIMCO
After almost six years and over $4.4 trillion in asset purchases, the Federal Reserve plans to end its unprecedented monetary policy known as quantitative easing, or “QE,” in November 2014. Though the end of QE has been widely anticipated, the actual termination of the policy represents a major turning point for financial markets, a point … Continue reading The End is Near
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