BCM UPDATES We're fast approaching that most wonderful time of the year, the Holiday season. It is a time to give thanks and to appreciate our blessings. At BCM that always includes recognizing our clients, families, and friends who invest their trust and confidence in us everyday. It is both a privilege and honor to … Continue reading Q4 2026 Update
At the end of the first quarter, the wall of worry was high. Global stocks were down, oil was spiking, and the shadow of the newly erupted war in Iran had investors bracing for a broad drawdown. Cautious positioning seemed not just prudent, but necessary. Q2 delivered a textbook reminder of how quickly markets and … Continue reading Q3 2026 Update
Jerome Powell is near the end of his term as Federal Reserve Chair. No doubt, one of the greatest accomplishments of his term was orchestrating a "soft landing" from what seemed like a near-certain post-COVID recession. Unfortunately, that feat will probably be overshadowed by his infamous "transitory" inflation debacle of 2021. That and his public … Continue reading Chess, not Checkers
U.S. economic and market conditions turned on a dime more than once over the past year. Conditions went from "exceptional" in Q4 2024 to the brink of recession by Q2 2025, only to bounce back to business as usual by the end of the same quarter. The U.S. stock market has been a good reflection … Continue reading Drunken Tea Leaves
The July 8th tariff deadlines came and went without consequence. As expected, pauses were extended by another month to August. So, at the end of July, we face the same circumstances we did on June 30th. Of course, the White House did announce some "deals" following the July pause. Agreements were reached with Japan and … Continue reading Balance, Not Complacency
What a difference a day makes. Just one day after BCM's Q2 Update, we got a major global shock from the White House. The timing of President Trump's tariff announcement was not a surprise, but it was worse than anyone expected. Although we have more questions than answers, we'll walk through what these developments could … Continue reading Markets Retaliate on Tariffs
The global equity market continued its upward trend in Q2, albeit at a subdued pace versus Q1. Global stocks are up +11.5% year-to-date as of Q2 end (represented by ACWI below), with U.S. big tech still leading the way. Gold held onto its gains, up +12.9% through Q2, while the bond market remained a laggard. … Continue reading Q3 2024 Update
I wrote in March that U.S. economic and market conditions continued to improve in 2024 which was positive for risk assets. As though right on cue, the global equity markets began a month-long downturn in April. Clearly, market timing is not a forte of mine, nor has it ever been! To be fair, I also … Continue reading Bad News Good News
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