At the end of the first quarter, the wall of worry was high. Global stocks were down, oil was spiking, and the shadow of the newly erupted war in Iran had investors bracing for a broad drawdown. Cautious positioning seemed not just prudent, but necessary. Q2 delivered a textbook reminder of how quickly markets and … Continue reading Q3 2026 Update
At year-end 2025, consensus expectations were for a continued rally in risk assets. The economy was growing, earnings were beating estimates, and stock markets were making new highs. Investors were optimistic, and equity analyst forecasts for the S&P 500 ranged from 7100 to 8100, predicting another double-digit year. One quarter doesn't make a year, but … Continue reading Q2 2026 Update
Like the saying goes,"beauty is in the eye of the beholder." It turns out the same can be said about stock market valuation. In December, I wrote the U.S. equity market eclipsed an all-time-high in terms of market cap to GDP. Yet, other measures look different. For example, the venerable Shiller P/E Ratio shows the … Continue reading Eye of the Beholder
BCM's latest Investor Letter is available at bellwethercm.com/insights.
The Bellwether Blog 
You must be logged in to post a comment.