Cracks in the Wall

I wrote in December widespread market fear and pessimism in the US seemed like an overreaction based on fundamental data.  To be clear, I don't think US stocks are a good bargain, and I prefer emerging markets anyway. But the YTD rally does support my view that the sell-off in Q4 was technical,  and as investors pile … Continue reading Cracks in the Wall

One Country, Many Reasons

From a Western perspective, many things about China are hard to understand.  For example, a communist government with a market economy, or the "one country, two systems" arrangement between Hong Kong and the mainland. The Chinese stock market is even more confounding.   Quotes flash red on upticks and green on downticks.  There are more share … Continue reading One Country, Many Reasons

Actually, Technically, the Longest

Longest ever? The US stock market closed August to the accolades of  "the longest bull market in history."  By some measures, the S&P 500 achieved its longest rally ever.  Then again, by other measures, it did not. S&P 500, 1927 to 2018  Monthly close, inflation adjusted. Souce: MacroTrends.net There's a lack of consensus on how this … Continue reading Actually, Technically, the Longest

Egypt Waits for Spring

Cradle of civilization  Egypt has been called the "cradle of civilization." Egyptians are tied to some of the earliest forms of language, agriculture, and technology that's known to man.  While the country has experienced its share of modern social and political issues, Egypt today is ripe with potential.  Consider the following characteristics. The most populated … Continue reading Egypt Waits for Spring

Dimming the Lights

Last year I made the case for solar stocks.  I was reasonably optimistic about the long-term prospects for the industry and thought stock prices looked meaningfully undervalued.   I got lucky timing-wise because solar stocks were up 54% in 2017 -- that much I did not expect. Source: etfreplay.com Of course, I'm not complaining. But valuations … Continue reading Dimming the Lights

No Market for Old Men

US stocks are in one of the longest bull markets in history.  Many are warning of extended market valuations.  Two of the most highly regarded valuation measures seem to agree. The chart below shows Dr. Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio has reached levels surpassed only by the dot-com bubble peak in 2000. CAPE Ratio Source: Multpl … Continue reading No Market for Old Men

From Nigeria with Love

In April I wrote about the Nigerian stock market. Since May the Nigerian market is up 30%.  Over the same period, the global stock market has basically been flat (shown below).   Nigerian Stock Market and Global Stock Market represented by NGE and VT, respectively Timing-wise this was lucky-- I didn't predict a two-week turnaround. … Continue reading From Nigeria with Love

Greece on Fire

Back in September, I wrote about the Greek stock market.   I pointed out that widespread pessimism, low expectations, and attractive valuation created an easy hurdle for an upside surprise.  Since then Greece has been on fire, up over 35%! But despite an increase in price, the Greek market P/E has actually fallen from 4.7x down … Continue reading Greece on Fire