Looking Abroad

With about every major US equity index making new highs, many investors are nervous about US stocks. I don't know if there's an impending stock market crash, but regardless at BCM we favor foreign developed market equities for the time being. Here are a few reasons why. Western Europe appears to be trailing the US … Continue reading Looking Abroad →

Anything and Everything for Russia

Today S&P announced it cut the credit rating on Russian sovereign debt to junk status. The Russian equity market slid about 8% on that news, but the damage wasn't as bad as some may have thought. That's because the downgrade was widely expected, and of course, the Russian market is already down more than 60% … Continue reading Anything and Everything for Russia →

Not the Biggest Loser

The year's not quite over, but I think it's safe to say that oil prices will be one of 2014's biggest losers. Year to date crude oil prices are down close to 50%. It's hard to believe that even just months ago many people assumed we'd never see oil prices below $100 per barrel again! … Continue reading Not the Biggest Loser →

Silver Lining

Many people have been talking about how gold prices plummeted last year. With a 29% loss in 2013, gold recorded its worst annual price decline since 1981. Meanwhile, fewer people seem to notice how silver prices got destroyed -- down by more than 37%! Year to date gold prices rebounded about 6% whereas silver prices … Continue reading Silver Lining →

How Speculative is Tesla?

Tesla stock is up by over 1000% since it's IPO. At this point, some think the stock is trading at outrageously speculative levels. The problem is, as with any high-growth stock, that fair value is very difficult to estimate, but we'll try our hand in this post none-the-less. Reality for Tesla California-based Tesla has grown … Continue reading How Speculative is Tesla? →

More Than Camaradarie

Those who follow BCM know that I've been watching Russian equities for some time. In the past, I've joked that Russia has more to offer than just stiff vodka and camaraderie -- but it's true. For example, Russia has vast deposits of natural resources including coal, timber, minerals, and natural gas. A little-appreciated fact … Continue reading More Than Camaradarie →

Defense in The Crosshairs

US defense spending continues to be a target of government budget cuts on Capitol Hill. While this clearly impacts US defense companies, industry leaders may do better than expected. Home of the brave and their weapons The US spends more on defense than any other country. According to SIPRI, the US was responsible for roughly … Continue reading Defense in The Crosshairs →

Is it Time to Go Solar?

SolarCity is up by more than 535% since its IPO. Since the company is still reporting losses, it's easy to think that its stock is expensive. However, there are some unique challenges to understanding what SolarCity is worth. Here are two issues to consider when trying to value the stock. Reported earnings versus reality In 2008, … Continue reading Is it Time to Go Solar? →

On Valuation

For many investors, realizing the importance of valuation, looking beyond price, is a key epiphany. Valuation is very important, but can also be tricky. For example, consider how many people have forsaken stocks like LinkedIn and Tesla due to their Price to Earnings multiples (high for LNKD and "does not compute" for TSLA). Yes, current … Continue reading On Valuation →

Last Yield Standing

For those living off a fixed income, the current interest environment is, to say the least, quite unsavory. Extending out to 30 years on the Treasury curve only fetches a paltry 3% (and a taxable 3% at that). This has interest-starved investors loading up on junk bonds and leveraging up bond portfolios (risk parity anyone?). … Continue reading Last Yield Standing →

Dangers of High Yield Hunting

Fixed income investors that were accustomed to earning 5% on a portfolio of government bonds are now getting 2% for the same securities. The steep drop has interest starved investors hunting for yield. As usual, the easiest way to increase yield has been to increase risk, and investors have taken the path of least resistance. … Continue reading Dangers of High Yield Hunting →

Russia Looks Rich & Cheap

In the previous post, I made the long-term case for commodities. In this post, we'll consider an indirect way to get exposure to them. It's common knowledge that emerging market economies tend to be correlated with commodity prices. That's because emerging markets are often dependent on the export of natural resources, making them "banana republics," … Continue reading Russia Looks Rich & Cheap →