An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. We just experienced one of the fastest bear market drawdowns in history and the S&P 500 was down -36% from peak to trough. Since then, we've also had a quick bounce of +27%. The whipsaw has everyone guessing if the stock market bottomed in March. Of course, … Continue reading A Hopeless Bottom
An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Fear is in the air It used to be "when America sneezes, the world catches a cold," but recent market action shows China may be the new snotty-nosed kid on the block. I mean the now-notorious coronavirus. Since its outbreak, the news flow has been frantic and … Continue reading When China Sneezes…
An excerpt from my recent article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Passive investing has enjoyed a tremendous rise in interest and popularity from investors over the past decade. Following that rise, the number of passive investment products, like index funds and ETFs, has also taken off. So much so that some fear passive investing is the next … Continue reading The Big Short, Part Deux?
An excerpt from my recent article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Pakistan goes back some 5,000 years and has a storied history of assimilating European, Asian, and Arab influences over millennia. Today, Pakistan has an equally interesting future that should be promising, but it's also debilitated by some serious problems. In this article, we'll unpack what's right and … Continue reading Unpacking Pakistan
It's the 19-year anniversary of the dot-com bust, and ironically markets are again awash in a deluge of fantastic IPOs. This time the fantasy has gone next level and involves a stampede of mythical unicorns. During the dot-com boom, it was unthinkable to value a pre-IPO company at over $1 billion (a unicorn). But as … Continue reading Chasing Unicorns
I wrote in December widespread market fear and pessimism in the US seemed like an overreaction based on fundamental data. To be clear, I don't think US stocks are a good bargain, and I prefer emerging markets anyway. But the YTD rally does support my view that the sell-off in Q4 was technical, and as … Continue reading Cracks in the Wall
From a Western perspective, many things about China are hard to understand. For example, a communist government with a market economy, or the "one country, two systems" arrangement between Hong Kong and the mainland. The Chinese stock market is even more confounding. Quotes flash red on upticks and green on downticks. There are more share … Continue reading One Country, Many Reasons
Silver prices are down 70% from their 2011 highs. Of course, there was a huge run-up to that peak and many people, myself included, thought a sell-off was needed. But at this point prices have swung to the other side, and precious metals are now as widely hated as they were loved before. How did … Continue reading Silver Lining
Longest ever? The US stock market closed August to the accolades of "the longest bull market in history." By some measures, the S&P 500 achieved its longest rally ever. Then again, by other measures, it did not. S&P 500, 1927 to 2018 Monthly close, inflation adjusted. Souce: MacroTrends.net There's a lack of consensus on how this … Continue reading Actually, Technically, the Longest
Cradle of civilization Egypt has been called the "cradle of civilization." Egyptians are tied to some of the earliest forms of language, agriculture, and technology that's known to man. While the country has experienced its share of modern social and political issues, Egypt today is ripe with potential. Consider the following characteristics. The most populated … Continue reading Egypt Waits for Spring
Last year I made the case for solar stocks. I was reasonably optimistic about the long-term prospects for the industry and thought stock prices looked meaningfully undervalued. I got lucky timing-wise because solar stocks were up 54% in 2017 -- that much I did not expect. Source: etfreplay.com Of course, I'm not complaining. But valuations … Continue reading Dimming the Lights
Both the ACWI and the S&P 500 gained more than 20% in 2017. US stocks continue to look expensive. Of course, that doesn't mean they can't continue to climb -- they've looked expensive for several years. But 2018 may be the year to be more selective. The table below shows the trailing P/E ratios for … Continue reading Digging Deeper for Energy
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