No Market for Old Men

US stocks are in one of the longest bull markets in history.  Many are warning of extended market valuations.  Two of the most highly regarded valuation measures seem to agree. The chart below shows Dr. Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio has reached levels surpassed only by the dot-com bubble peak in 2000. CAPE Ratio Source: Multpl … Continue reading No Market for Old Men

From Nigeria with Love

In April I wrote about the Nigerian stock market. Since May the Nigerian market is up 30%.  Over the same period, the global stock market has basically been flat (shown below).   Nigerian Stock Market and Global Stock Market represented by NGE and VT, respectively Timing-wise this was lucky-- I didn't predict a two-week turnaround. … Continue reading From Nigeria with Love

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

The markets saw some back and forth this month but the S&P 500 closed the quarter up about 5% and even bonds managed to eek out a small gain.  The "Trump rally" is moving along, and the market still buys the president's campaign promises. But following the capitulation of repeal and replace, Trump's ability to … Continue reading Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

Lesson Learned Looking Back

The year is close to an end and both main street and Wall Street are quiet.  The holiday time tranquility is a good time to reflect on the past year.  Heading into 2016, my highest conviction investment ideas were the Russian stock market, silver, and oil.   Though the year's not quite over, it looks … Continue reading Lesson Learned Looking Back

Greek Lightning Strikes

Much ink has been spilled over Greece's financial woes.   And if you've followed the headlines, you might think Greek lightning was burning Athens to the ground.  While it's true that Greece's finances have been woefully mismanaged (it has the second highest Debt/GDP ratio in the world), in absolute terms things may not be as … Continue reading Greek Lightning Strikes

Looking for Bright Spots

Seems like everybody hates solar stocks.  They're down big, but with reason.  Earnings have been dismal and financials have been deteriorating. Prominent names like Solar City and Sun Power are simultaneously burning through cash and piling up debt. Adding insult to injury, two years of capitulating oil prices have softened demand for alternative energy.   … Continue reading Looking for Bright Spots

Surprises, Silver Linings, and Staying the Course

It's been a wild year so far.  A correction to start things off, Brexit, terror scares, a political coup, and a 1.36% yield on the 10 year Treasury to boot.  It's been one surprise after another.  It seems nobody knows what to expect and investors everywhere are on edge.  But despite the turmoil, the markets … Continue reading Surprises, Silver Linings, and Staying the Course