You wouldn't know it from watching new highs in the S&P 500, but the U.S. is in week five of the longest government shut down in its history! Whether we characterize it as complacency or optimism, it suggests many investors are throwing caution to the wind. Margin debt reflects the amount of money customers borrow … Continue reading Grains of Data and Salt
Financial markets continue charging higher as we head into Q4 2025. As of Q3 end, global equity market prices were up +18% (ACWI) and U.S. bond market prices advanced +3% (AGG) YTD. Gold remains the big outperformer, with YTD price up by +45% (GLD)! Global Markets Q3 2025 YTD MACRO VIEW Economic conditions have been … Continue reading Q4 2025 Update
U.S. economic and market conditions turned on a dime more than once over the past year. Conditions went from "exceptional" in Q4 2024 to the brink of recession by Q2 2025, only to bounce back to business as usual by the end of the same quarter. The U.S. stock market has been a good reflection … Continue reading Drunken Tea Leaves
It's been a fast moving year for the markets and solidly positive overall. Yet, despite wide swings in both directions, markets ended the quarter close to where they were back in February. Year-to-date, global stock prices are up +9.7%. US bond prices are up +2.4%. Gold continues to lead, up +24.1% YTD. Global Markets MACRO … Continue reading Q3 2025 Update
It's been a tumultuous year so far, replete with surprises and hidden dragons. It's not surprising, then, that sentiment and markets have seen volatile swings in both directions. Only a few weeks ago, it seemed like the sky was falling after the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements. One after another, Wall Street Banks changed their outlooks … Continue reading Controlled Breathing
What a difference a day makes. Just one day after BCM's Q2 Update, we got a major global shock from the White House. The timing of President Trump's tariff announcement was not a surprise, but it was worse than anyone expected. Although we have more questions than answers, we'll walk through what these developments could … Continue reading Markets Retaliate on Tariffs
After a strong rally in 2024, global stock prices saw a pullback in February and ended Q1 with a decline of -0.8%. U.S. stocks lagged for the first time in a while, and prices were down -4.3% for the quarter. Foreign stocks stayed positive, while gold outshined and was up +17.4% year-to-date. Global Markets Q1 … Continue reading Q2 2025 Update
All eyes are on U.S. equities as domestic big tech stocks have made new highs in prices and valuations over the last year. Ironically, some of the best opportunities ahead are likely outside that narrow sliver of U.S. stocks. For example, foreign equity markets look increasingly more attractive in terms of valuation versus the U.S. … Continue reading Wrong, Right, and Real in Emerging Markets
With stock valuations stretched and bonds being called back into question, U.S. investors will face tough asset allocation decisions in 2025. One simple solution is to maintain balance and avoid making any extreme moves. This isn't paralysis by analysis, rather it is a reasonable position based on facts. While stocks look expensive, economic and market … Continue reading Caution and Opportunity
U.S. markets celebrated President-elect Trump's victory with a rally in risk assets. The thinking is a Trump presidency means lower taxes and fewer regulations. Both are good for business, investors feel elated and expect a repeat of 2017. But should they? Some forgot expectations were far less festive about Trump in 2016. Many feared disorder … Continue reading Great Expectations & Feelings
The U.S. presidential election is less than a week away. Both sides are dug in and tensions are so thick you could cut them with a knife. Not only is this expected to be a close race, but as both candidates decry, it will be one of the most consequential elections of our time. They … Continue reading Red, White, & Blue
China critics believe Chinese stocks are uninvestable due to a myriad of economic and geopolitical issues. The Chinese stock market being down more than -60% shows many investors believe the same. Despite its many challenges, Chinese stocks may still be investable for those with enough risk appetite. The full article is available at seekingalpha.com.
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