Back in September, I wrote about the Greek stock market. I pointed out that widespread pessimism, low expectations, and attractive valuation created an easy hurdle for an upside surprise. Since then Greece has been on fire, up over 35%! But despite an increase in price, the Greek market P/E has actually fallen from 4.7x down … Continue reading Greece on Fire
The year is close to an end and both main street and Wall Street are quiet. The holiday time tranquility is a good time to reflect on the past year. Heading into 2016, my highest conviction investment ideas were the Russian stock market, silver, and oil. Though the year's not quite over, it looks … Continue reading Lesson Learned Looking Back
Much ink has been spilled over Greece's financial woes. And if you've followed the headlines, you might think Greek lightning was burning Athens to the ground. While it's true that Greece's finances have been woefully mismanaged (it has the second highest Debt/GDP ratio in the world), in absolute terms things may not be as … Continue reading Greek Lightning Strikes
It's been a wild year so far. A correction to start things off, Brexit, terror scares, a political coup, and a 1.36% yield on the 10 year Treasury to boot. It's been one surprise after another. It seems nobody knows what to expect and investors everywhere are on edge. But despite the turmoil, the markets … Continue reading Surprises, Silver Linings, and Staying the Course
After more than doubling since 2014, China's stock market has fallen about 30% over the past couple of months. That has investors holding their breath and scratching their heads at the same time. Everyone wants to know what's behind the selloff -- and there are many theories to meet the demand. I don't know why … Continue reading Red is the New Green
Today S&P announced it cut the credit rating on Russian sovereign debt to junk status. The Russian equity market slid about 8% on that news, but the damage wasn't as bad as some may have thought. That's because the downgrade was widely expected, and of course, the Russian market is already down more than 60% … Continue reading Anything and Everything for Russia
Those who follow BCM know that I've been watching Russian equities for some time. In the past, I've joked that Russia has more to offer than just stiff vodka and camaraderie -- but it's true. For example, Russia has vast deposits of natural resources including coal, timber, minerals, and natural gas. A little-appreciated fact … Continue reading More Than Camaradarie
While lumber doesn't get as much attention as its popular cousins oil and gold, it too is a scarce and valuable natural resource. What's more, I think the secular case for lumber is strong due to how the world is changing. As countries develop and industrialize, they typically follow a pattern of building and resource … Continue reading Yelling Timber!
In the previous post, I made the long-term case for commodities. In this post, we'll consider an indirect way to get exposure to them. It's common knowledge that emerging market economies tend to be correlated with commodity prices. That's because emerging markets are often dependent on the export of natural resources, making them "banana republics," … Continue reading Russia Looks Rich & Cheap
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