The broad commodity markets have been uneventful over the past two years. While some commodities have outperformed others, and windows of volatility may have been good for trading, the broad commodity markets ended up down in both 2011 and 2012. That being said, commodities should be attractive from a long-term perspective. The reasons are straightforward. Natural resources like oil, metals, … Continue reading Cold, Hard, Commodities
BCM is pleased to share its latest Investor Letter with you. Client letters provide BCM's perspectives on economic and market conditions. You may access an archive of letters and other content at BCM's website, http://www.bellwethercm.com. The BCM Team This blog is for informational purposes only. Nothing on this blog constitutes investment, tax, or legal advice. … Continue reading Latest Investor Letter
Back in August, I made my case for Helmerich & Payne (HP) at $45. When it hit $54 dollars in November I recommended taking some profits. On Friday, HP closed at $61, exceeding my fair value estimate of $59 per share. I still like Helmerich & Payne as a company, but at $61 it's time to finish taking your profits. From $45 that's … Continue reading Ring The Register
Traditionally, commodities were a difficult asset class for individual investors to access. For most people, it just wasn't practical to trade futures or to take physical delivery of oil barrels. As a result, the primary investors were the very wealthy, institutions, and companies that had commercial needs for the commodities. This shut out the average investor from a market that could provide strong returns and low correlations with other asset … Continue reading Kicking the Wheel
Back in September, I made my case for the "other HP," Helmerich & Payne. Since then, HP has advanced from $46 to over $52. I still like the company, and I think the stock will advance further long term. That being said, this is not a bad gain for a few week's time, and it's reason enough to start ringing the … Continue reading Don’t Hog HP
Bellwether Capital Management LLC is pleased to share its latest Investor Letter with you. Investor Letters provide BCM's perspectives on the economy, markets, and investing. You may access a copy of the letter along with an archive of letters, and other content at BCM's website http://www.bellwethercm.com/insights. Thank you, and please feel free to contact BCM … Continue reading Latest Investor Letter
Most people probably think of Hewlett-Packard when they hear "HP." This is almost certainly the case for investors who have followed Hewlett-Packard's struggles. However, I'm not writing about that HP, I'm writing about another HP that many people have never heard of. Helmerich & Payne (HP) is a $4.9 billion oil and gas company based in the US. It provides contract drilling … Continue reading The Other HP
In fifth grade, I remember the "cool kids" at my school wore Guess jeans and a lot of hairspray (I wasn't one of them). While hair spray has lost its popularity, Guess? Inc. has grown into a $2.4 billion dollar company that sells apparel in 90 countries around the world. Last week, Guess reported earnings that missed analyst expectations and its stock price fell by more than 21%. The negative … Continue reading Second Guessing
Bonds continue to be unpopular among professional investors. Over the past year, many well-known investors including John Paulson and Warren Buffet have expressed their preference for stocks over bonds. It's easy to understand why. The current 2.45% yield on a 30 year Treasury is not only historically low but is practically negative when adjusted for inflation. At least stocks have the … Continue reading Hot or Not
The financial media has been pointing out that employment is steadily improving. A cursory look at the numbers seems to support that. For example, the unemployment rate has declined to 8.2%, down from 9.1% last year. Some will be quick to point out the decline was due to workers leaving the labor force, and not because of improving employment. However, it's difficult to say that no job-related measures have improved. Over the past year, the … Continue reading Working Hard?
Last week JP Morgan stunned the world by announcing that it suffered over $2 billion in losses from derivative trades gone awry. Ironically, JPMorgan was considered to be one of Wall Street's more responsible banks - one that avoided the derivative disasters of the financial crisis. Even more ironic, JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, has been one of the most outspoken bankers fighting against increased regulation of financial services. Unfortunately … Continue reading The Best Policy
The first quarter was full throttle "risk-on" for U.S. equity markets. The S&P 500 came out of the gates screeching and clocked more than 10% for the quarter. This rally seems to have rekindled animal spirits, and now the strength of the U.S. economic recovery is the toast of the town. From a macroeconomic perspective, a continued expansion would imply further equity market strength. … Continue reading Fast Money
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