At the end of the first quarter, the wall of worry was high. Global stocks were down, oil was spiking, and the shadow of the newly erupted war in Iran had investors bracing for a broad drawdown. Cautious positioning seemed not just prudent, but necessary. Q2 delivered a textbook reminder of how quickly markets and … Continue reading Q3 2026 Update
Jerome Powell is near the end of his term as Federal Reserve Chair. No doubt, one of the greatest accomplishments of his term was orchestrating a "soft landing" from what seemed like a near-certain post-COVID recession. Unfortunately, that feat will probably be overshadowed by his infamous "transitory" inflation debacle of 2021. That and his public … Continue reading Chess, not Checkers
The global equity market continued its upward trend in Q2, albeit at a subdued pace versus Q1. Global stocks are up +11.5% year-to-date as of Q2 end (represented by ACWI below), with U.S. big tech still leading the way. Gold held onto its gains, up +12.9% through Q2, while the bond market remained a laggard. … Continue reading Q3 2024 Update
I wrote in March that U.S. economic and market conditions continued to improve in 2024 which was positive for risk assets. As though right on cue, the global equity markets began a month-long downturn in April. Clearly, market timing is not a forte of mine, nor has it ever been! To be fair, I also … Continue reading Bad News Good News
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