The official numbers aren't in yet but it looks like 2015 ended without a bang for US markets. The S&P 500 managed somewhere around 1% total return and the Barclay's Aggregate ended up about .5% -- nothing worth getting excited over. Of course, across the globe and everywhere in between there were substantial divergences in … Continue reading Halfway Between Double or Nothing
Following a choppy third quarter, global markets have made a comeback. Since October 1, the S&P 500 and EAFE have both rebounded over 5%, and emerging markets have bounced by more than 8%. Strangely enough, the same fears that stoked the sell-off also seem to be fueling the rally. Investors who disliked the uncertainty … Continue reading Full Swing Voting
The third quarter is officially in the books, and it ended a dicey one. Global stocks ended the quarter squarely in correction territory, the FTSE Global All Cap Index was down 10.5% for the period. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was down 7.3%, the EAFE was down 10.1%, and emerging markets were the worst at … Continue reading Rolling the Dice
Market volatility picked up significantly in August and US stocks have been teetering in and out of correction territory ever since. Uncertainty is pervasive and investors' nerves are rattled. At times like these, it's more important than ever to manage expectations and maintain appropriate expectations. A market correction is generally defined as a pullback of … Continue reading Never a Wrong Time
After more than doubling since 2014, China's stock market has fallen about 30% over the past couple of months. That has investors holding their breath and scratching their heads at the same time. Everyone wants to know what's behind the selloff -- and there are many theories to meet the demand. I don't know why … Continue reading Red is the New Green
With about every major US equity index making new highs, many investors are nervous about US stocks. I don't know if there's an impending stock market crash, but regardless at BCM we favor foreign developed market equities for the time being. Here are a few reasons why. Western Europe appears to be trailing the US … Continue reading Looking Abroad
US stocks got off to a choppy start in 2015. The S&P 500 ended January down 3% and some took it as an omen for the year ahead. But the market bounced back 6% in February and is now up 2.88% for the year. So much for the "January Barometer?" Whether you use them … Continue reading The February Barometer?
Today S&P announced it cut the credit rating on Russian sovereign debt to junk status. The Russian equity market slid about 8% on that news, but the damage wasn't as bad as some may have thought. That's because the downgrade was widely expected, and of course, the Russian market is already down more than 60% … Continue reading Anything and Everything for Russia
Following a calm start to 2014, financial markets ended the third quarter with a spike up in volatility. Global stock prices fell by 3.79% in the third quarter but still managed a year to date return of 3.80%. Risky asset prices, in general, were down across the board. Most notably, foreign developed market stock prices were … Continue reading Third Quarter Recap
Despite a surprise slowdown of US economic growth in the first quarter, the stock market has continued to climb higher. The S&P 500 is up by over 7% year-to-date. US equity REITs have been especially strong, already returning more than 17% so far in 2014. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10 year US Treasury yield has fallen … Continue reading Mid-Year Summary
Tesla stock is up by over 1000% since it's IPO. At this point, some think the stock is trading at outrageously speculative levels. The problem is, as with any high-growth stock, that fair value is very difficult to estimate, but we'll try our hand in this post none-the-less. Reality for Tesla California-based Tesla has grown … Continue reading How Speculative is Tesla?
Those who follow BCM know that I've been watching Russian equities for some time. In the past, I've joked that Russia has more to offer than just stiff vodka and camaraderie -- but it's true. For example, Russia has vast deposits of natural resources including coal, timber, minerals, and natural gas. A little-appreciated fact … Continue reading More Than Camaradarie
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