Judging by the news coming out of West Africa, one might think the region has nothing but pirates and warlords. But a closer look reveals a diamond in the rough, you may know as Nigeria. Maybe you cringe at the thought of investing there, but that's more reason to consider it. Here are some noteworthy … Continue reading Diamond in the Rough
The markets saw some back and forth this month but the S&P 500 closed the quarter up about 5% and even bonds managed to eek out a small gain. The "Trump rally" is moving along, and the market still buys the president's campaign promises. But following the capitulation of repeal and replace, Trump's ability to … Continue reading Buy the Rumor, Sell the News
The year is close to an end and both main street and Wall Street are quiet. The holiday time tranquility is a good time to reflect on the past year. Heading into 2016, my highest conviction investment ideas were the Russian stock market, silver, and oil. Though the year's not quite over, it looks … Continue reading Lesson Learned Looking Back
Much ink has been spilled over Greece's financial woes. And if you've followed the headlines, you might think Greek lightning was burning Athens to the ground. While it's true that Greece's finances have been woefully mismanaged (it has the second highest Debt/GDP ratio in the world), in absolute terms things may not be as … Continue reading Greek Lightning Strikes
Seems like everybody hates solar stocks. They're down big, but with reason. Earnings have been dismal and financials have been deteriorating. Prominent names like Solar City and Sun Power are simultaneously burning through cash and piling up debt. Adding insult to injury, two years of capitulating oil prices have softened demand for alternative energy. … Continue reading Looking for Bright Spots
It's been a wild year so far. A correction to start things off, Brexit, terror scares, a political coup, and a 1.36% yield on the 10 year Treasury to boot. It's been one surprise after another. It seems nobody knows what to expect and investors everywhere are on edge. But despite the turmoil, the markets … Continue reading Surprises, Silver Linings, and Staying the Course
In the previous post, I made the point that US stock market valuation isn't as high as a cursory glance at traditional P/E measures might imply. Adjusted for inflation, valuations actually look more "median" than anything. But I also don't think US market valuations are currently attractive. And some of the arguments I've seen about … Continue reading Picking Cherries
US equity market valuation is puzzling. With the S&P 500 priced at 24x trailing earnings, stocks look expensive and long in the tooth -- the market has persistently traded above average valuation levels since 2013. Meanwhile, economic conditions have been, at best, lackluster over the same period. As earnings and the business cycle inch towards … Continue reading Valuation Conundrum
The first quarter started with a bang but ended with a thud. The US stock market was basically flat and the bond market was modestly up. The widespread global recession rhetoric seems to be quieting. This is particularly true in the US where we have been pointing out economic conditions are not as bad as … Continue reading Fitting the Earnings Shoe
2016 has started off with a bang. The S&P 500 is off more than 7% in January, one of the worst calendar-year starts in history. That has everyone wondering if 2016 will be the year of the next big market crash. Though Reinhart and Rogoff might argue otherwise -- I think this time may actually … Continue reading This Time is Different
The official numbers aren't in yet but it looks like 2015 ended without a bang for US markets. The S&P 500 managed somewhere around 1% total return and the Barclay's Aggregate ended up about .5% -- nothing worth getting excited over. Of course, across the globe and everywhere in between there were substantial divergences in … Continue reading Halfway Between Double or Nothing
Following a choppy third quarter, global markets have made a comeback. Since October 1, the S&P 500 and EAFE have both rebounded over 5%, and emerging markets have bounced by more than 8%. Strangely enough, the same fears that stoked the sell-off also seem to be fueling the rally. Investors who disliked the uncertainty … Continue reading Full Swing Voting
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