It's been a fast moving year for the markets and solidly positive overall. Yet, despite wide swings in both directions, markets ended the quarter close to where they were back in February. Year-to-date, global stock prices are up +9.7%. US bond prices are up +2.4%. Gold continues to lead, up +24.1% YTD. Global Markets MACRO … Continue reading Q3 2025 Update
It's been a tumultuous year so far, replete with surprises and hidden dragons. It's not surprising, then, that sentiment and markets have seen volatile swings in both directions. Only a few weeks ago, it seemed like the sky was falling after the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements. One after another, Wall Street Banks changed their outlooks … Continue reading Controlled Breathing
Before its notoriety as an international blockbuster, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" was an ancient Chinese proverb used to describe a person, place, or thing with remarkable but hidden qualities. The current tariffs and trade war resemble an analogous situation for the US with unseen dangers. I recently wrote about the obvious problems of an escalating … Continue reading Couching Tariff, Hidden Danger
What a difference a day makes. Just one day after BCM's Q2 Update, we got a major global shock from the White House. The timing of President Trump's tariff announcement was not a surprise, but it was worse than anyone expected. Although we have more questions than answers, we'll walk through what these developments could … Continue reading Markets Retaliate on Tariffs
After a strong rally in 2024, global stock prices saw a pullback in February and ended Q1 with a decline of -0.8%. U.S. stocks lagged for the first time in a while, and prices were down -4.3% for the quarter. Foreign stocks stayed positive, while gold outshined and was up +17.4% year-to-date. Global Markets Q1 … Continue reading Q2 2025 Update
All eyes are on U.S. equities as domestic big tech stocks have made new highs in prices and valuations over the last year. Ironically, some of the best opportunities ahead are likely outside that narrow sliver of U.S. stocks. For example, foreign equity markets look increasingly more attractive in terms of valuation versus the U.S. … Continue reading Wrong, Right, and Real in Emerging Markets
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With stock valuations stretched and bonds being called back into question, U.S. investors will face tough asset allocation decisions in 2025. One simple solution is to maintain balance and avoid making any extreme moves. This isn't paralysis by analysis, rather it is a reasonable position based on facts. While stocks look expensive, economic and market … Continue reading Caution and Opportunity
U.S. markets celebrated President-elect Trump's victory with a rally in risk assets. The thinking is a Trump presidency means lower taxes and fewer regulations. Both are good for business, investors feel elated and expect a repeat of 2017. But should they? Some forgot expectations were far less festive about Trump in 2016. Many feared disorder … Continue reading Great Expectations & Feelings
The U.S. presidential election is less than a week away. Both sides are dug in and tensions are so thick you could cut them with a knife. Not only is this expected to be a close race, but as both candidates decry, it will be one of the most consequential elections of our time. They … Continue reading Red, White, & Blue
The third quarter was an eventful one for markets. After a strong first half, the global stock market lost half its year-to-date gains in August. However, stocks recovered and ended Q3 near new highs for the year. The U.S. bond market was negative for most of the year but finally turned positive in Q3. Gold … Continue reading Q4 2024 Update
Earlier this month, a sudden and violent sell-off in global stocks was attributed to the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, i.e. when investors borrow Yen to buy other assets, like stocks. After the Bank of Japan surprised markets with monetary policies that were more aggressive than expected, investors panicked and reversed the carry by … Continue reading The Next Carry Trade?
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