Greed and Fear

US stocks are at all-time highs and many valuations measures suggest they are expensive.  That doesn't mean the market can't keep rising and it's proven bears wrong for years.  However, it's fair to say US stocks don't look cheap by traditional standards. It's actually getting hard to find any market that looks like a compelling … Continue reading Greed and Fear

No Market for Old Men

US stocks are in one of the longest bull markets in history.  Many are warning of extended market valuations.  Two of the most highly regarded valuation measures seem to agree. The chart below shows Dr. Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio has reached levels surpassed only by the dot-com bubble peak in 2000. CAPE Ratio Source: Multpl … Continue reading No Market for Old Men

Bitcoin, Blockchain, and a Bag of Chips

Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are the dish du jour.  Everyone from seasoned investment managers to teen-aged kids wants a taste of the crypto.  There's a good reason too, Bitcoin is up almost 300% in the past year alone. But price swings are extreme, enough to make even veteran traders squirm (both in pain and delight).  The … Continue reading Bitcoin, Blockchain, and a Bag of Chips

From Nigeria with Love

In April I wrote about the Nigerian stock market. Since May the Nigerian market is up 30%.  Over the same period, the global stock market has basically been flat (shown below).   Nigerian Stock Market and Global Stock Market represented by NGE and VT, respectively Timing-wise this was lucky-- I didn't predict a two-week turnaround. … Continue reading From Nigeria with Love

Greece on Fire

Back in September, I wrote about the Greek stock market.   I pointed out that widespread pessimism, low expectations, and attractive valuation created an easy hurdle for an upside surprise.  Since then Greece has been on fire, up over 35%! But despite an increase in price, the Greek market P/E has actually fallen from 4.7x down … Continue reading Greece on Fire

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

The markets saw some back and forth this month but the S&P 500 closed the quarter up about 5% and even bonds managed to eek out a small gain.  The "Trump rally" is moving along, and the market still buys the president's campaign promises. But following the capitulation of repeal and replace, Trump's ability to … Continue reading Buy the Rumor, Sell the News