Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

The markets saw some back and forth this month but the S&P 500 closed the quarter up about 5% and even bonds managed to eek out a small gain.  The "Trump rally" is moving along, and the market still buys the president's campaign promises. But following the capitulation of repeal and replace, Trump's ability to … Continue reading Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

Lesson Learned Looking Back

The year is close to an end and both main street and Wall Street are quiet.  The holiday time tranquility is a good time to reflect on the past year.  Heading into 2016, my highest conviction investment ideas were the Russian stock market, silver, and oil.   Though the year's not quite over, it looks … Continue reading Lesson Learned Looking Back

Surprise, Surprise

Yesterday, the US made history with an upset of presidential proportions.  Despite being a huge underdog, Donald Trump clinched the presidency from strongly favored Hillary Clinton (who pollsters estimated had a 90% probability of winning).  Following the upset, investor uncertainty spiked and Dow futures traded down more than 800 points. Yet the S&P 500 actually … Continue reading Surprise, Surprise

Greek Lightning Strikes

Much ink has been spilled over Greece's financial woes.   And if you've followed the headlines, you might think Greek lightning was burning Athens to the ground.  While it's true that Greece's finances have been woefully mismanaged (it has the second highest Debt/GDP ratio in the world), in absolute terms things may not be as … Continue reading Greek Lightning Strikes

Looking for Bright Spots

Seems like everybody hates solar stocks.  They're down big, but with reason.  Earnings have been dismal and financials have been deteriorating. Prominent names like Solar City and Sun Power are simultaneously burning through cash and piling up debt. Adding insult to injury, two years of capitulating oil prices have softened demand for alternative energy.   … Continue reading Looking for Bright Spots

Surprises, Silver Linings, and Staying the Course

It's been a wild year so far.  A correction to start things off, Brexit, terror scares, a political coup, and a 1.36% yield on the 10 year Treasury to boot.  It's been one surprise after another.  It seems nobody knows what to expect and investors everywhere are on edge.  But despite the turmoil, the markets … Continue reading Surprises, Silver Linings, and Staying the Course