Financial markets continue charging higher as we head into Q4 2025. As of Q3 end, global equity market prices were up +18% (ACWI) and U.S. bond market prices advanced +3% (AGG) YTD. Gold remains the big outperformer, with YTD price up by +45% (GLD)! Global Markets Q3 2025 YTD MACRO VIEW Economic conditions have been … Continue reading Q4 2025 Update
U.S. economic and market conditions turned on a dime more than once over the past year. Conditions went from "exceptional" in Q4 2024 to the brink of recession by Q2 2025, only to bounce back to business as usual by the end of the same quarter. The U.S. stock market has been a good reflection … Continue reading Drunken Tea Leaves
It's been a fast moving year for the markets and solidly positive overall. Yet, despite wide swings in both directions, markets ended the quarter close to where they were back in February. Year-to-date, global stock prices are up +9.7%. US bond prices are up +2.4%. Gold continues to lead, up +24.1% YTD. Global Markets MACRO … Continue reading Q3 2025 Update
It's been a tumultuous year so far, replete with surprises and hidden dragons. It's not surprising, then, that sentiment and markets have seen volatile swings in both directions. Only a few weeks ago, it seemed like the sky was falling after the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements. One after another, Wall Street Banks changed their outlooks … Continue reading Controlled Breathing
Before its notoriety as an international blockbuster, "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" was an ancient Chinese proverb used to describe a person, place, or thing with remarkable but hidden qualities. The current tariffs and trade war resemble an analogous situation for the US with unseen dangers. I recently wrote about the obvious problems of an escalating … Continue reading Couching Tariff, Hidden Danger
U.S. markets celebrated President-elect Trump's victory with a rally in risk assets. The thinking is a Trump presidency means lower taxes and fewer regulations. Both are good for business, investors feel elated and expect a repeat of 2017. But should they? Some forgot expectations were far less festive about Trump in 2016. Many feared disorder … Continue reading Great Expectations & Feelings
The global equity market continued its upward trend in Q2, albeit at a subdued pace versus Q1. Global stocks are up +11.5% year-to-date as of Q2 end (represented by ACWI below), with U.S. big tech still leading the way. Gold held onto its gains, up +12.9% through Q2, while the bond market remained a laggard. … Continue reading Q3 2024 Update
The global equity market advanced another +9% in Q1 2024 (represented by ACWI below). U.S. stocks led the way, again. The U.S. bond market (AGG) prices fell -2% over the same period. Gold prices (GLD) moved sideways for much of the quarter but jumped almost +10% in February. The biggest headline in Q1 was Bitcoin … Continue reading Q2 2024 Update
Last November, I wrote The Trend is Your Friend. The post summarized improvements observed in various economic and market data and also discussed the age-old market wisdom to not fight a prevailing trend. Based on what we saw, conditions supported increasing risk exposure. That move worked in our favor because markets continued their upward trend. … Continue reading Still Friends
2023 ended up being a great year for the financial markets. Equity markets are up double digits, crypto is again shooting for the moon, and even gold and U.S. bonds are up for the year. But it also proved to be challenging for investors, both novice and professional alike. For example, at the beginning of … Continue reading 100% & 180 Degrees Later
"The trend is your friend" is an old market adage known by traders old and new alike. Other sayings like "take what the market gives you" and "don't fight the tape" share a similar underlying principle that forms the basis for investing approaches like "momentum" and "trend-following" strategies. The principal is simple, markets typically move … Continue reading When Trend is Your Friend
Market divergence I've written a few times about the divergence in equity markets this year, and that divergence continues. In the U.S. the S&P 500 gave back a chunk of its YTD gains since July but is still up +9.35% as of October 31st. Meanwhile, an equal weight index of the S&P 500 has turned … Continue reading Divergence Continues
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