You wouldn't know it from watching new highs in the S&P 500, but the U.S. is in week five of the longest government shut down in its history! Whether we characterize it as complacency or optimism, it suggests many investors are throwing caution to the wind. Margin debt reflects the amount of money customers borrow … Continue reading Grains of Data and Salt
Financial markets continue charging higher as we head into Q4 2025. As of Q3 end, global equity market prices were up +18% (ACWI) and U.S. bond market prices advanced +3% (AGG) YTD. Gold remains the big outperformer, with YTD price up by +45% (GLD)! Global Markets Q3 2025 YTD MACRO VIEW Economic conditions have been … Continue reading Q4 2025 Update
The July 8th tariff deadlines came and went without consequence. As expected, pauses were extended by another month to August. So, at the end of July, we face the same circumstances we did on June 30th. Of course, the White House did announce some "deals" following the July pause. Agreements were reached with Japan and … Continue reading Balance, Not Complacency
After a strong rally in 2024, global stock prices saw a pullback in February and ended Q1 with a decline of -0.8%. U.S. stocks lagged for the first time in a while, and prices were down -4.3% for the quarter. Foreign stocks stayed positive, while gold outshined and was up +17.4% year-to-date. Global Markets Q1 … Continue reading Q2 2025 Update
With stock valuations stretched and bonds being called back into question, U.S. investors will face tough asset allocation decisions in 2025. One simple solution is to maintain balance and avoid making any extreme moves. This isn't paralysis by analysis, rather it is a reasonable position based on facts. While stocks look expensive, economic and market … Continue reading Caution and Opportunity
U.S. markets celebrated President-elect Trump's victory with a rally in risk assets. The thinking is a Trump presidency means lower taxes and fewer regulations. Both are good for business, investors feel elated and expect a repeat of 2017. But should they? Some forgot expectations were far less festive about Trump in 2016. Many feared disorder … Continue reading Great Expectations & Feelings
The global equity market continued its upward trend in Q2, albeit at a subdued pace versus Q1. Global stocks are up +11.5% year-to-date as of Q2 end (represented by ACWI below), with U.S. big tech still leading the way. Gold held onto its gains, up +12.9% through Q2, while the bond market remained a laggard. … Continue reading Q3 2024 Update
The global equity market advanced another +9% in Q1 2024 (represented by ACWI below). U.S. stocks led the way, again. The U.S. bond market (AGG) prices fell -2% over the same period. Gold prices (GLD) moved sideways for much of the quarter but jumped almost +10% in February. The biggest headline in Q1 was Bitcoin … Continue reading Q2 2024 Update
Last November, I wrote The Trend is Your Friend. The post summarized improvements observed in various economic and market data and also discussed the age-old market wisdom to not fight a prevailing trend. Based on what we saw, conditions supported increasing risk exposure. That move worked in our favor because markets continued their upward trend. … Continue reading Still Friends
Last month I wrote about changes in economic conditions in 2023. The changes continue but we are seeing more dispersion. One surprise in 2023 was in U.S. housing. Despite widespread forecasts of doom and gloom, housing started the year with months of sudden and unexpected gains. Just as people were rationalizing those gains, single-family home … Continue reading What Changes May Come
The U.S. economy continues to defy what has been one of the most anticipated recessions in history. Heading into 2023 the economics team at Bloomberg saw the odds of a U.S. recession at 100%. They weren't alone. Economists at The Conference Board, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Center For Economic Business … Continue reading First Time Ever, Again
Uncertainty loves complexity Uncertainty remains high with respect to the economy and the markets. On the one hand, we have a steeply inverted yield curve and a deteriorating housing market. But on the other, we have improving sentiment and a strong jobs market. The truth is nobody really knows what happens next and we can … Continue reading KISSing with Stocks
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