2023 ended up being a great year for the financial markets. Equity markets are up double digits, crypto is again shooting for the moon, and even gold and U.S. bonds are up for the year. But it also proved to be challenging for investors, both novice and professional alike. For example, at the beginning of … Continue reading 100% & 180 Degrees Later
"The trend is your friend" is an old market adage known by traders old and new alike. Other sayings like "take what the market gives you" and "don't fight the tape" share a similar underlying principle that forms the basis for investing approaches like "momentum" and "trend-following" strategies. The principal is simple, markets typically move … Continue reading When Trend is Your Friend
Market divergence I've written a few times about the divergence in equity markets this year, and that divergence continues. In the U.S. the S&P 500 gave back a chunk of its YTD gains since July but is still up +9.35% as of October 31st. Meanwhile, an equal weight index of the S&P 500 has turned … Continue reading Divergence Continues
Markets moved lower in Q3 and off their highs reached in July. The global stock market was down -3.95% in the quarter (ACWI). Meanwhile, the U.S. bond market was down -3.63% over the same period (AGG). Economic indicators were mixed as the U.S. economy continued to search for a definitive direction. Global Markets Q3 2023 … Continue reading Q4 2023 Update
Last month I wrote about changes in economic conditions in 2023. The changes continue but we are seeing more dispersion. One surprise in 2023 was in U.S. housing. Despite widespread forecasts of doom and gloom, housing started the year with months of sudden and unexpected gains. Just as people were rationalizing those gains, single-family home … Continue reading What Changes May Come
The U.S. economy continues to defy what has been one of the most anticipated recessions in history. Heading into 2023 the economics team at Bloomberg saw the odds of a U.S. recession at 100%. They weren't alone. Economists at The Conference Board, the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Center For Economic Business … Continue reading First Time Ever, Again
OVERVIEW Q2 saw a continuation of the rally in global risk assets from the lows of Q4 2022. The global stock market (ACWI)was up +13% year-to-date as of June 30 while the U.S. bond market was nearly flat at +0.4% (AGG). The bulls are in the driver's seat but bumps remain in the road ahead. … Continue reading Q3 2023 Update
Storied debt ceiling games Once upon a time, the U.S. government imposed a limit on how much the country could borrow. A debt ceiling was a prudent idea and a good story, but in reality, that ceiling was breached countless times since its inception. In January of this year, the U.S. broke above the most … Continue reading Playing Dirty with Default
Uncertainty loves complexity Uncertainty remains high with respect to the economy and the markets. On the one hand, we have a steeply inverted yield curve and a deteriorating housing market. But on the other, we have improving sentiment and a strong jobs market. The truth is nobody really knows what happens next and we can … Continue reading KISSing with Stocks
OVERVIEW 2023 got off to a blazing start. Global stocks were up more than 7% in Q1. That combined with some better-than-expected economic data has investors hopeful that the tide has turned on the bear market of 2022. However, there was no shortage of volatility during the quarter. And if Q1 was indicative of things … Continue reading Q2 2023 Update
An excerpt from my latest article at seekingalpha.com. After a challenging 2022, global financial markets have gotten off to a strong start in 2023. That has many investors hoping, calling, and fishing for a bottom to the bear market in stocks. Anything is possible in the near term, but whether 2023 marks the start of … Continue reading Bottom Fishing
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