With stock valuations stretched and bonds being called back into question, U.S. investors will face tough asset allocation decisions in 2025. One simple solution is to maintain balance and avoid making any extreme moves. This isn't paralysis by analysis, rather it is a reasonable position based on facts. While stocks look expensive, economic and market … Continue reading Caution and Opportunity
U.S. markets celebrated President-elect Trump's victory with a rally in risk assets. The thinking is a Trump presidency means lower taxes and fewer regulations. Both are good for business, investors feel elated and expect a repeat of 2017. But should they? Some forgot expectations were far less festive about Trump in 2016. Many feared disorder … Continue reading Great Expectations & Feelings
The U.S. presidential election is less than a week away. Both sides are dug in and tensions are so thick you could cut them with a knife. Not only is this expected to be a close race, but as both candidates decry, it will be one of the most consequential elections of our time. They … Continue reading Red, White, & Blue
The third quarter was an eventful one for markets. After a strong first half, the global stock market lost half its year-to-date gains in August. However, stocks recovered and ended Q3 near new highs for the year. The U.S. bond market was negative for most of the year but finally turned positive in Q3. Gold … Continue reading Q4 2024 Update
Earlier this month, a sudden and violent sell-off in global stocks was attributed to the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, i.e. when investors borrow Yen to buy other assets, like stocks. After the Bank of Japan surprised markets with monetary policies that were more aggressive than expected, investors panicked and reversed the carry by … Continue reading The Next Carry Trade?
China critics believe Chinese stocks are uninvestable due to a myriad of economic and geopolitical issues. The Chinese stock market being down more than -60% shows many investors believe the same. Despite its many challenges, Chinese stocks may still be investable for those with enough risk appetite. The full article is available at seekingalpha.com.
The global equity market continued its upward trend in Q2, albeit at a subdued pace versus Q1. Global stocks are up +11.5% year-to-date as of Q2 end (represented by ACWI below), with U.S. big tech still leading the way. Gold held onto its gains, up +12.9% through Q2, while the bond market remained a laggard. … Continue reading Q3 2024 Update
People who spend enough time in and around the financial markets learn important (and often painful) lessons. One is that market history doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but rhymes a lot! Something that sounds familiar right now is the frenzy surrounding Artificial Intelligence (AI). Investors are all aboard the hype train. Just look at the AI … Continue reading Rhymes and Reasons
I wrote in March that U.S. economic and market conditions continued to improve in 2024 which was positive for risk assets. As though right on cue, the global equity markets began a month-long downturn in April. Clearly, market timing is not a forte of mine, nor has it ever been! To be fair, I also … Continue reading Bad News Good News
The global equity market advanced another +9% in Q1 2024 (represented by ACWI below). U.S. stocks led the way, again. The U.S. bond market (AGG) prices fell -2% over the same period. Gold prices (GLD) moved sideways for much of the quarter but jumped almost +10% in February. The biggest headline in Q1 was Bitcoin … Continue reading Q2 2024 Update
Last November, I wrote The Trend is Your Friend. The post summarized improvements observed in various economic and market data and also discussed the age-old market wisdom to not fight a prevailing trend. Based on what we saw, conditions supported increasing risk exposure. That move worked in our favor because markets continued their upward trend. … Continue reading Still Friends
BCM is pleased to share its 2024 Investor Letter. Clients may view the letter and an archive of previous letters at BCM's website bellwethercm.com/insights. For clients who need access, please contact BCM, thank you.
The Bellwether Blog 
You must be logged in to post a comment.