You wouldn't know it from watching new highs in the S&P 500, but the U.S. is in week five of the longest government shut down in its history! Whether we characterize it as complacency or optimism, it suggests many investors are throwing caution to the wind. Margin debt reflects the amount of money customers borrow … Continue reading Grains of Data and Salt
Financial markets continue charging higher as we head into Q4 2025. As of Q3 end, global equity market prices were up +18% (ACWI) and U.S. bond market prices advanced +3% (AGG) YTD. Gold remains the big outperformer, with YTD price up by +45% (GLD)! Global Markets Q3 2025 YTD MACRO VIEW Economic conditions have been … Continue reading Q4 2025 Update
U.S. economic and market conditions turned on a dime more than once over the past year. Conditions went from "exceptional" in Q4 2024 to the brink of recession by Q2 2025, only to bounce back to business as usual by the end of the same quarter. The U.S. stock market has been a good reflection … Continue reading Drunken Tea Leaves
The July 8th tariff deadlines came and went without consequence. As expected, pauses were extended by another month to August. So, at the end of July, we face the same circumstances we did on June 30th. Of course, the White House did announce some "deals" following the July pause. Agreements were reached with Japan and … Continue reading Balance, Not Complacency
It's been a fast moving year for the markets and solidly positive overall. Yet, despite wide swings in both directions, markets ended the quarter close to where they were back in February. Year-to-date, global stock prices are up +9.7%. US bond prices are up +2.4%. Gold continues to lead, up +24.1% YTD. Global Markets MACRO … Continue reading Q3 2025 Update
What a difference a day makes. Just one day after BCM's Q2 Update, we got a major global shock from the White House. The timing of President Trump's tariff announcement was not a surprise, but it was worse than anyone expected. Although we have more questions than answers, we'll walk through what these developments could … Continue reading Markets Retaliate on Tariffs
After a strong rally in 2024, global stock prices saw a pullback in February and ended Q1 with a decline of -0.8%. U.S. stocks lagged for the first time in a while, and prices were down -4.3% for the quarter. Foreign stocks stayed positive, while gold outshined and was up +17.4% year-to-date. Global Markets Q1 … Continue reading Q2 2025 Update
The third quarter was an eventful one for markets. After a strong first half, the global stock market lost half its year-to-date gains in August. However, stocks recovered and ended Q3 near new highs for the year. The U.S. bond market was negative for most of the year but finally turned positive in Q3. Gold … Continue reading Q4 2024 Update
The global equity market continued its upward trend in Q2, albeit at a subdued pace versus Q1. Global stocks are up +11.5% year-to-date as of Q2 end (represented by ACWI below), with U.S. big tech still leading the way. Gold held onto its gains, up +12.9% through Q2, while the bond market remained a laggard. … Continue reading Q3 2024 Update
The global equity market advanced another +9% in Q1 2024 (represented by ACWI below). U.S. stocks led the way, again. The U.S. bond market (AGG) prices fell -2% over the same period. Gold prices (GLD) moved sideways for much of the quarter but jumped almost +10% in February. The biggest headline in Q1 was Bitcoin … Continue reading Q2 2024 Update
Last November, I wrote The Trend is Your Friend. The post summarized improvements observed in various economic and market data and also discussed the age-old market wisdom to not fight a prevailing trend. Based on what we saw, conditions supported increasing risk exposure. That move worked in our favor because markets continued their upward trend. … Continue reading Still Friends
2023 ended up being a great year for the financial markets. Equity markets are up double digits, crypto is again shooting for the moon, and even gold and U.S. bonds are up for the year. But it also proved to be challenging for investors, both novice and professional alike. For example, at the beginning of … Continue reading 100% & 180 Degrees Later
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