Wrong, Right, and Real in Emerging Markets

All eyes are on U.S. equities as domestic big tech stocks have made new highs in prices and valuations over the last year. Ironically, some of the best opportunities ahead are likely outside that narrow sliver of U.S. stocks. For example, foreign equity markets look increasingly more attractive in terms of valuation versus the U.S. … Continue reading Wrong, Right, and Real in Emerging Markets →

Bottom Fishing

An excerpt from my latest article at seekingalpha.com. After a challenging 2022, global financial markets have gotten off to a strong start in 2023. That has many investors hoping, calling, and fishing for a bottom to the bear market in stocks. Anything is possible in the near term, but whether 2023 marks the start of … Continue reading Bottom Fishing →

Reality for Real Estate

Last year I wrote all good things come to an end, including the easy money from a decade-long rally in housing prices. The chart below shows how peaks (green circles) in home sales activity (blue line) historically lead prices (red line). I noted the divergence in June 2021 (green arrows) was untenable, and I expected a reversion … Continue reading Reality for Real Estate →

How to Know if The Bear Market is Ending

The bear market of 2022 feels more painful than usual because of how broad the selloff has been. From stocks to bonds, to real estate, to cryptocurrency, it seems like there's nowhere to hide. We're all hoping for a bottom in stocks, but hope itself will not help us find one. Fortunately, there are indicators … Continue reading How to Know if The Bear Market is Ending →

Fearing the Pandemic

An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Last month, I wrote a piece on coronavirus and China. This month it's clear COVID-19 has become a global concern. While people all over the world are still grappling with the viral pandemic, markets are overcome by a fear pandemic and already in correction territory. Markets are … Continue reading Fearing the Pandemic →

When China Sneezes…

An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Fear is in the air It used to be "when America sneezes, the world catches a cold," but recent market action shows China may be the new snotty-nosed kid on the block. I mean the now-notorious coronavirus. Since its outbreak, the news flow has been frantic and … Continue reading When China Sneezes… →

Unpacking Pakistan

An excerpt from my recent article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Pakistan goes back some 5,000 years and has a storied history of assimilating European, Asian, and Arab influences over millennia. Today, Pakistan has an equally interesting future that should be promising, but it's also debilitated by some serious problems. In this article, we'll unpack what's right and … Continue reading Unpacking Pakistan →