Long and Short of Value

THE DEATH OF VALUE The death knell for "value-investing" has rung many times over the years. And after a decade of lagging explosive growth stocks (like "FAANGMAT") it rings louder than ever. The divergence between growth and value has reached historical levels and now looks even more stretched than during the 1990s dot-com boom. Is … Continue reading Long and Short of Value

Macro Value Update, Q3 2020

MACRO OVERVIEW Global equity markets notched a new all time high in early September only to pull back since. The rise in market volatility has some fearing another meltdown. To be clear, nobody knows what happens next, but it's worth noting how current economic and market conditions contrast with Q1. Figure 1: Global Equity Market … Continue reading Macro Value Update, Q3 2020

Macro Value Update, Q2 2020

MACRO OVERVIEW "Unprecedented" is the word of choice among investors trying to make sense of the market's wild swings this year. After one of the fastest bear markets ever in Q1, global equities surprised with an equally furious comeback in Q2. But the rally has been at odds with deteriorating fundamentals, clear in the divergence … Continue reading Macro Value Update, Q2 2020

Stupid Acronyms

US equities bounced hard off their March lows. The disconnect with fundamental data has many intelligent investors trying to explain the rally with acronyms like FOMO and TINA. But the best explanation may come from the original Intelligent Investor Benjamin Graham who said, "in the short-run, the market is a voting machine, but in the … Continue reading Stupid Acronyms

When China Sneezes…

An excerpt from my article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Fear is in the air It used to be "when America sneezes, the world catches a cold," but recent market action shows China may be the new snotty-nosed kid on the block. I mean the now-notorious coronavirus. Since its outbreak, the news flow has been frantic and … Continue reading When China Sneezes…

Unpacking Pakistan

An excerpt from my recent article published at SeekingAlpha.com. Pakistan goes back some 5,000 years and has a storied history of assimilating European, Asian, and Arab influences over millennia.  Today, Pakistan has an equally interesting future that should be promising, but it's also debilitated by some serious problems.  In this article, we'll unpack what's right and … Continue reading Unpacking Pakistan

One Country, Many Reasons

From a Western perspective, many things about China are hard to understand.  For example, a communist government with a market economy, or the "one country, two systems" arrangement between Hong Kong and the mainland. The Chinese stock market is even more confounding.   Quotes flash red on upticks and green on downticks.  There are more share … Continue reading One Country, Many Reasons

Time for Turkey?

Time for Turkey? The Holidays are almost here, but no, I'm not writing about your upcoming Thanksgiving dinner. I'm writing about a Turkey with Lira that's down 90% against USD and an equity market that's down 70% from its highs. TUR data by YCharts When others are fearful Emerging market equities have sold off broadly year-to-date.  … Continue reading Time for Turkey?