Hot or Not

Bonds continue to be unpopular among professional investors.  Over the past year, many well-known investors including John Paulson and Warren Buffet have expressed their preference for stocks over bonds. It's easy to understand why. The current 2.45% yield on a 30 year Treasury is not only historically low but is practically negative when adjusted for inflation.  At least stocks have the … Continue reading Hot or Not

Patient Trigger Finger

So what did the stock market think about S&P's downgrade?  We got an answer today, in bright flashing red.  The Dow sank 634 points today - the sixth largest single-day drop in history. To be fair, the sell-off wasn't rooted entirely in the downgrade (which was widely expected).  Rather, as I have written before, it looks like the market is … Continue reading Patient Trigger Finger

There’s a Forest Up There

Last week in San Francisco, the weather forecast was calling for a slight chance of showers north of the city, most likely around noon.  In the heart of the city, while grabbing my morning cup of coffee, I was getting drenched because I thought I wouldn't need an umbrella.  That got me thinking about "Navigate the Noise," a book by Richard Bernstein.  He wrote that people seem to pay … Continue reading There’s a Forest Up There